Guns, police and social media increase the risks of political violence during US elections

Political violence is hardly new to America. From the country’s inception, gunmen have shaped its political landscape, from the Civil War to the Ku Klux Klan to high-profile assassinations and bombings of federal buildings. However, there is a threat of political violence in-depth in recent years and intensified during the 2024 election cycle. At least 400 separate incidents of political violence reported in the first two quarters of 2024, nearly 80 percent more than in 2022. Targets range from former presidents and politicians to election administrators, municipal leaders, school officials and even emergency workers.

Department of Homeland Security repeatedly underlined the growing threat of political violence, the identification of far-right extremists as the most serious domestic threat to American security. There are few such groups cohesion on the streets, although many more are active online. Only in the first half of 2024, almost one out of five local elected officials reported receiving threats. This month DHS described the threat of violence associated with the 2024 election cycle as “high”.

Motivated to kill

Political violence is typical defined as the use of physical force to cause bodily harm to a person for a political purpose. It has surprisingly strong support in the US: around 2022 every third American adults believed that political violence was always justified to “protect American democracy,” “save the American way of life,” or “save the country.” Anxiously, one of seven Americans categorically agreed with the statement that “in the next few years there will be a civil war in the United States.” Although these numbers decreased a little by 2023, justifications for political violence will be extremely common.

In the US, a constant undercurrent of conspiracy thinking and apocalyptic beliefs can increase the risk of political violence. 2024 year study found that about 9% of Americans polled in 2022-2023 strongly believed in QAnon-like narratives, and that US institutions “are controlled by a group of Satan-worshiping pedophiles who run a global sex-trafficking operation.” Another 20% of Americans reported that they were “living in what the Bible calls the end times.” As violent and conspiratorial ideas gain popularity, so does the risk that they may be implemented at the supralocal level.

Armed and ready

The risk of political violence is also increased by the presence of firearms. The US is an exception when it comes to guns: they are there at least 370 million of them in circulation. Between 30 and 40 percent of all Americans claim to personally own at least one firearm. Possession of weapons jumped up over the past decade, with surveys showing that more than half of American adults lived in households with a gun in 2023, up from 42 percent in 2013. I wonder what the greatest increase in gun ownership between 2020 and 2021 appears to be among liberal and democratic citizens.

Whether recent buyers or longtime owners, gun owners usually speak up higher support for political violence than for people who do not own guns, with many viewing guns as tools to be mobilized in defense of “American values.” Moreover, the owners of the machines and the people who seem to be there regularly more prone perceive political violence as justified, are more willing to participate in it, are more willing to kill to achieve political goals, and are more willing to organize a violent group.

The same 2024 poll found that among MAGA Republicans, belief in a potential civil conflict and the willingness to bear arms in such a scenario is markedly high. About 30 percent of MAGA Republicans strongly believe civil war is likely in the coming years—three times more likely than among non-MAGA Republicans. This is different from the political violence of the 1960s and 1970s, when radical left-wing groups often emerged as the main actors. Today’s violent potential has largely shifted to the far right and is more deeply intertwined with gun culture and paramilitary groups.

America’s gun culture and political divisiveness are shaping a nation that is already clearly vulnerable to gun violence. Almost in 2021 49,000 Americans were killed by firearms, with homicides accounting for half of these deaths. Also impressive is the role of guns in suicides, which account for half of the deaths from the use of firearms, which collectively marks the US as a lethal outlier among developed countries. Mass shootings, when accounting less than 2% of the total number of deaths from firearms is of public concern.

Police on the march

In the meantime, the private police gathered courage. Estimated in 169 active groups Today, American militias have a long, tumultuous history, achieving prominence in the 1980s and 1990s. By the mid-1990s, there were approximately 859 active militias, although their numbers fell sharply after government repression. However, since 2016, militias such as Three percent and Oath keepers have regained momentum caused by political discontent, anti-immigration rhetoric and support for far-right political figures. Several of them took part in the action “Unite the Right” in Charlottesville in 2017 and Stop Theft activity in the wake of the 2020 election, including a riot at the Capitol, others continue to mobilize border protection questions

Federal law prohibits paramilitary activity in all 50 states, but enforcement is inconsistent, and although some individuals associated with militia groups have been charged in recent years, persecution are rare. The combination of anti-government sentiment, excessive local organizing, and the digital spread of far-right ideologies makes enforcement difficult, especially in politically engaged or rural areas. The Biden administration fired the first in the country national strategy on the fight against domestic terrorism in 2021 evidence of their threat, members of Congress and the Senate proposed The Private Militarization Prevention Act, which would ban public “patrolling, drilling, or engaging in harmful paramilitary tactics” in 2024, although the bill has yet to pass.

Digital support

Apart from physical encounters, this is the online world another front in spreading political violence. Social media has revolutionized recruitment and radicalization, and the platforms are enabling it echo chambers where threats, intimidation and incitement to violence circulate with near impunity. The US Capitol Police conducted an investigation 8000 threats against members of Congress in 2023, representing a nearly 50 percent increase from 2018. Meanwhile, threats against federal judges increased 150 percent from 2019 to 2023. Economic incentives of social networks for interaction cause sensationalism and outrageoften making women and minorities particularly vulnerable to harassment.

The anonymity and viral nature of digital spaces create new risks. Some militias and extremist groups disguised propaganda under innocuous names, building hidden networks to educate, organize, and radicalize users. Platforms like Facebook, Telegram, YouTube, X and online games in some cases the normalization of right-wing extremism, with militias recruiting “active patriots,” including current and former law enforcement officers, military personnel, and disaffected youth, urging them to “stand up” and “be ready” for civil war. Anti-government sentiments, hostility towards migrants and white nationalist message often serve as a recruiting tool.

The broader implications of American political violence before, during, and after the 2024 election reach far beyond the country’s borders. Perceptions of a weakened or violent American democracy can be geopolitically destabilizing. Elections marred by violence could serve as a dog whistle to autocrats and extremists around the world that democratic processes are vulnerable and potentially embolden similar factions elsewhere. On the contrary, peaceful, well-organized elections can become a model of democratic sustainability, which is crucial as 2024 ends a record year for national elections.

Recent measures by the Biden administration to limit police activity and impose penalties for unauthorized military exercises are a positive step in the right direction. While ambitious, such measures face significant obstacles, including constitutional concerns about state and federal powers and strong opposition from Second Amendment advocates. And while strengthening federal law enforcement is important, heavy-handed policies can backfire by pushing certain groups toward further radicalization.

Ultimately, America’s fight against political violence and domestic extremism underscores the need for a multi-pronged approach, starting with stronger police enforcement, responsible gun laws including background checks, red flag laws and assault rifle bans, and stronger social media regulations and accountability for platforms that allow the dissemination of extremist content. However, these measures require political will and public support, which are lacking in the polarized US political landscape.

More importantly, US leaders must rethink constructive political dialogue that rises above tribalism. Beyond law enforcement, fighting political violence means fighting structural inequality and promoting social cohesion. Actions to bridge ideological divides, strengthen bonding capital, and reduce economic inequality can contribute to a shared national narrative that undermines violent fringe elements. A generation that has grown up in conditions of political instability and online radicalization needs constructive participation in democratic practices and public discourse. With the November 2024 election looming, the stakes are higher than ever. The coming months could prove to be defining not only for American democracy, but for democracies around the world.