Will Mahayuti Provide Clean Sweep? Here’s what the exit polls have to say

Mumbai: The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have captured the nation’s attention, with exit polls predicting a potential victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. If these predictions come true, the effects could spread far beyond the state, changing political alliances and strategies.

Of the nine exit polls released after Wednesday’s poll, six predict a clear majority for the Mahayuti, while two favor the opposition Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA). The remaining polls predict a hung rally, adding intrigue to an already tense political atmosphere.

Exit Polls

Polls conducted by Poll Diary, Chanakya Strategies, Matriz, People Pulse, P-Marg and CNX show Mahayuti will secure a comfortable majority with a projected margin of 122 to 10,195 seats. Instead, SAS Group and Electoral Age favor MVA, projecting between 147 and 155 seats. The Lok Shahi Marathi-Rudra is on the sidelines, suggesting a full assembly with both alliances within striking distance of forming a government. The poll diary predicts Mahayuti to win between 122 and 180 seats, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party with 77 to 108 seats.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is expected to win 27-50 seats, while Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction may claim 18-28. On the other hand, MVA could win 69-121 seats, Congress (28-47), Shiv Sena (UBT) (16-35) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (25-39) shared the tally. Chanakya Strategies predicts that the BJP will cross 90 seats, while Shinde’s Sena and Pawar’s faction of the NCP could win 48 and 22 seats, respectively. The MVA faction in the Congress could win 63 seats, Thackerys Sena 35 and Pawar’s NCP around 40.

The CNX poll gives one of the highest estimates for Mahayuti, predicting 160-179 seats against MVA’s 110-119. Conversely, the SAS Group and Electoral Age buck this trend, projecting an MVA majority, with the Congress as the dominant party within it. The Maharashtra election is characterized by shifting political positions and a highly polarized campaign.

Impact of splits

Splits in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP have significantly affected the electoral landscape, with the BJP nimbly maneuvering to capitalize on these differences. Ajit Pawar’s departure from Sharad Pawar’s NCP strengthened Mahayuti’s urban and semi-urban appeal, while Eknath Shinde’s leadership sought to consolidate rural and middle-class votes. The BJP’s campaign focused on economic stability and infrastructure development, positioning itself as the harbinger of continuity and growth. On the other hand, the MVA, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, tried to present itself as a viable alternative by focusing on farmers’ plight, unemployment and regional disparities. However, internal divisions and the inability to present a united front undermined its appeal in critical regions.

Voter turnout of 58.43%, slightly lower than in previous polls, shows increased interest in rural constituencies traditionally seen as swing zones. Territories often determine the final outcome, and Mahayuti’s strong rural reach could prove decisive. Exit polls show urban areas including Mumbai and Pune leaning towards the BJP-led alliance, reflecting its resonance with middle-class and youth voters. However, the MVA has found support in agrarian areas, where rejection of the authorities and dissatisfaction with government schemes are palpable. A decisive victory for Mahayuti would boost the BJP’s momentum ahead of the general elections, confirming its dominance in India’s political centre.

A key battleground

Maharashtra, with its 48 parliamentary seats, is a key battleground for any national coalition, and a BJP-led sweep in the assembly could significantly affect the dynamics of the Lok Sabha. Also, a Mahayuti victory could further marginalize opposition parties like the Congress and the NCP, which are already struggling to stay united. It would also confirm the BJP’s strategy of co-opting regional leaders like Ajit Pawar and Shinde, signaling a change in the way regional coalitions are formed and maintained. For the MVA, a strong result could restore its position as a powerful opposition bloc. This will demonstrate that voter dissatisfaction with BJP policies can translate into tangible electoral advantages, mobilizing anti-BJP forces across India.

All eyes are on the bottom line

As counting day approaches on November 23, all eyes will be on the final tally. If Mahayuti gets a decisive majority, it will not only strengthen the BJP’s position in Maharashtra but also change the national political landscape. Conversely, a surprise MVA victory or a failed rally could pave the way for post-election alliances, injecting further uncertainty into the political narrative. Ultimately, the Maharashtra election highlighted the dynamic interplay between local and national politics, offering a preview of the strategies and alliances that will shape India’s electoral future.