What to watch for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Playoff race at Homestead

HOMESTEAD, FL. The Cup Playoffs will move to South Florida and a lot will be at stake in the middle race of the Round of 16.

Joey Logano’s win last week in Las Vegas puts him in the Championship 4. That leaves seven drivers for the final three spots in the title race.

Here’s what to watch for Sunday’s race (2:30 p.m. ET on NBC) at Homestead-Miami:

1. Division of the playoff field

The gap between those at the transfer point and those below the cut line split the field in terms of potential strategy.

Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and William Byron are on a layover heading to Homestead.

Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, defending champion Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are all under the cut. Hamlin is the closest with 27 points from a transfer spot.

Both Blaney and Elliott say they need to win to advance. While Hamlin and Reddick admit there is room for improvement in points, they are focused on winning.

Bell (2023), Larson (2022) and Byron (2021) have won the last three races at Homestead. Bell pointed out that all three should be concerned about the points because at least one of those three will have to advance through the points to the title race. Bell is 42 points above the cut line, Larson is 35 points above the cut line, and Byron is 27 points above the cut line.

“Plus 42 (points) sounds great until you realize that every time someone wins, that line gets cut more and more and more, or that gap to the cut line,” Bell said. “You’re never safe and it’s going to be a battle. It’s going to be a fight to the checkered flag in Martinsville and, you know, everybody knows how important those wins are.”

2. What’s next?

Tyler Reddick, who is 30 points below the cut, was asked this weekend if he thinks he still has a chance to make the title race based on points.

“If we have pretty quiet races from here until the last lap at Martinsville, I’d say it’s probably too much of a deficit,” he said, “but I feel like every race in this playoff, something crazy happens, so I I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Reddick, who will start in the pole position, is right about the chaos of these playoffs.

Last week in Las Vegas, his car rolled over after a crash that also involved fellow playoff drivers Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Joey Logano, who advanced to this round after the disqualification of Alex Bowman, won this race.

These playoffs also saw much of the crash at Talladega, Kyle Larson had bad races in the first two races before later winning the same round, and various pit road issues for several drivers.

In this race last year, Larson ran into barrels at the entrance to pit road. In addition, Bell rallied from deep to win.

So, it makes you wonder what will happen in this race.

3. Efforts to regain strength

Even though Denny Hamlin has four top-10 finishes in the last five races, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Pit lane issues cost him two of the last four races (Kansas and Las Vegas). He scored one point in the last seven stages. Hamlin led only five laps in the playoffs.

“It’s definitely not a good time to not be on our A-game, everybody, including me,” said Hamlin, who is 27 points below the cut. “The good news is that we still have a chance, even this late in the game.”

What will it take to get his fortune back?

“We have to perform as well as we can, and we just haven’t shown that in quite some time,” Hamlin said. “So where do I start? I make sure that no matter what, I’m providing the team with the information they need. I make sure to work during the week to get better. I make sure that, you know, I perform on the race track and give the team the best opportunity to succeed. There are a lot of things in my improvement bucket that I need to pull out.”

As for the pit crew? The team did not make any changes to the unit.

“You go with the group you have,” Hamlin said. “They’re certainly in a slump, for sure. But we have to get through it and feel like this is the best group we can put on pit road. … They were the best pit crew team in the first quarter of the year. But, of course, there were many different problems on pit road. Almost most of the times we go down (pit road) it’s been different things, so I can’t pinpoint one consistent problem we’ve had. So, we just have to see where it goes.”

4. Team Penske Teamwork

One of the points made this season is how much closer Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and their teams have worked together this season. This is not to say that there have been problems in the past, just that the working relationship is better than ever.

“Both teams have definitely been working together a lot lately on setup,” Logano said. “…I think Blaney and I work really well together off the racetrack and on the racetrack. And that relationship only got stronger after his championship, which I think is great. And it seems like we were really able to be open with each other.”

Team Penske has won the last two Cup championships. Logano won the title in 2022 and Blaney last year.

With Logano already in contention for the title, the focus is on bringing Blaney back to the championship.

“I think Joey and I work really well together and we always have,” Blaney said. “I feel like it gets better every year. I feel like as you get older, he and I become the two veteran guys on the Penske side. It’s like, okay, we have to really rely on each other, how do we really take the reins in our own hands.”