Russia wants Ukrainian territory in Kursk to return to talks on ending the war, but Ukraine won’t budge

President of Russia Vladimir Putin He does not want Kursk to be used as a bargaining chip, nor does he want to be forced to give up the Ukrainian territory he seized after the Russian invasion, Remchukov added. Putin’s recent remarks that any deal must reflect “the realities on the ground” relate to Russia’s hopes of retaking Kursk, he said.

Last week, the Kremlin sharply stepped up its maximalist rhetoric on peace talks, implying that it would be no more willing to make concessions to an incoming Trump administration than it was to President Joe Biden.

In an interview with Russian state television on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appeared to prematurely reject any proposals to freeze the conflict and the current front line, as suggested by people close to Trump, calling the proposal “even worse” than Minsk agreements that were concluded after the war in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Russian military blogger and propagandist Mykhailo Zvinchuk, who founded the Rybar Telegram channel, said Trump may try to pressure Moscow into occupying Kursk, Ukraine, but he expects that to be renewed in the coming weeks or months.

“I believe that in any case the Kursk issue will be resolved before Trump’s inauguration,” he said, describing the recent Russian assault as the third wave of a long counteroffensive that he said had knocked out reserves and logistics of Ukraine in the border Sumy region. in Ukraine and allowed Russia to return several settlements.

Ukrainian forces seized between 1,000 and 1,500 square kilometers in the first two weeks of the Kursk operation in August, said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at the Black Bird Group, an open-source intelligence analysis group based in Helsinki. Since then, Russia has been steadily counterattacking, and with three pronged offensives now under way, he predicted that the territory held by the Ukrainians would shrink even more in the coming days.

Not smooth

But the latest attack did not go smoothly for the Russians, according to the Ukrainian military. According to them, after more than a week of merciless fighting, Russia achieved only minor successes and lost a significant number of troops and equipment along the way.

Despite increasing pressure, Ukrainians say, they mostly hold on.

Oleksandr, 39, who works in intelligence in the Kursk region of the 82nd brigade, said that in recent days, Ukrainian troops have destroyed more than 50 Russian vehicles, including armored personnel carriers and tanks. According to him, the Russian military constantly repeated their mistakes, for example, they moved along the roads controlled by Ukrainian fire equipment, missed turns and even fired at the positions of their own infantry.

Amid constant reports of Russian abuse of captured Ukrainians, he himself witnessed the killing of captured soldiers in real-time using drone footage. He spoke on condition that he be identified only by first name due to military regulations.

On Monday, Oleksandr saw Russian soldiers take over a Ukrainian position, capture two soldiers and then shoot them dead, in footage he later verified The Washington Post.

In response, according to Oleksandr, the Ukrainian command post fired a barrage of drones at the Russians to try to kill the Russian military and destroy their vehicle.

For those few minutes, “the Russians, who were executing our prisoners, were our primary target,” Oleksandr said, adding that Ukraine later returned that position. “But you don’t have enough time to think about it much because you have work to do; you have other Russians to kill.’

Artem Efanov, an 82nd Brigade drone operator who video-chatted from a dugout between missions in Kursk, said he saw Russian troops stuck in swamps, marshes and rivers, with boggy terrain making it difficult for them to advance successfully. .

“We are holding boundaries,” Efanov said. “It has become more difficult, but we have the means.”

Recent rare protests by displaced Kursk residents have shown that Ukraine’s invasion has caused serious domestic problems for Russia, Efanov said. According to him, the latest Russian attack probably has less to do with Trump and more to do with “Putin’s political ambitions to say we can handle this, we can liberate Kursk Oblast in three days,” as they planned to occupy Kyiv. in three days.”

Photos and videos from more than half a dozen villages north and south of Suja have been verified The Post Last week it was shown that Russian equipment encountered fierce resistance from the Ukrainian side, trying to advance further into Kursk. In one drone video taken on Wednesday, a Russian MT-LB, a type of armored vehicle, was hit as it drove south past the village of Novoivanivka. The soldiers roll out of the truck engulfed in flames and the car continues towards the intersection before crashing again. Two more soldiers leave the burning car and run to hide in the woods.

Other shots show the consequences of battles and attacks on small convoys of Russian armored vehicles. “The Russians are increasing the pace of their operations and increasing the size and scope of their armored attacks, likely in an effort to defeat Ukrainian defenders and dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk,” said George Barros, a geospatial and Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Putin’s winning streak

Kyiv, while publicly rejecting offers to exchange land for peace, is also eyeing a future Trump presidency and wants to leave the course on the table just as Russia wants to push it away.

But doubts are growing as to why Putin, whose forces are advancing on all fronts, is even considering negotiations that could stand in the way of his original goal of seizing control of all of Ukraine.

“Putin probably believes he’s on the winning streak and why would he negotiate now, so his demands are likely to be extremely high,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general who is now a distinguished policy fellow at the Council of Europe from foreign affairs. Relations.

It remains to be seen whether Putin’s claims of maximalist demands are a negotiating tactic or “he means it because he has invested so much skin in this war that ending it with a compromise will not be acceptable to him,” he said.

Any move toward negotiations will depend a lot on “whether Putin is willing to take his chips and accept more or less of Trump’s proposals, or whether he will conclude that Trump is going to abandon Ukraine, so let’s move on,” Gerard Araud said. , former French ambassador to Washington.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, said Ukraine likely views Kursk as potential future leverage in negotiations, but the downside is that the operation has put a significant strain on its military.

According to analysts, Ukrainian losses in eastern Donetsk region accelerated in mid-August to mid-September as experienced units abandoned their positions and focused on the Kursk operation.

According to Lee, in the past three months, Russian forces in Ukraine have advanced faster than at any time since 2022.

As winter approaches, the leaves are already thinning, making it difficult to camouflage in a war where drones are already monitoring every move. Swamps may soon freeze. Ukraine will need to decide where to prioritize its limited troops and weapons, Lee warned.

“Where are reinforcements being sent? Because if you focus on holding Kursk, it can put other parts of the front at greater risk,” he said.