Harris is counting on college-educated voters

College-educated voters have leaned toward the Democratic Party over the past few election cycles. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee for the third consecutive election, has gained support among black men, Hispanics and voters without a college degree.

But Democratic strategists say college-educated Americans who vote and donate at high rates could help Harris become president.

“They’re incredibly reliable voters,” said Harris campaign researcher Molly Murphy, who added that Harris’ warnings about Trump resonated particularly well with that group. “These messages — warnings about the dangers of a second Trump term when it comes to our national security, and even our homeland security, using guns against American citizens — are what resonate with college-educated voters — but it’s not just those who voters”.

Polls show Harris and Trump in a static deadlocked race with only 10 days left until Election Day. The candidates are vying for a tiny share of undecided voters in the seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — where polls show the two have similar statistics.

Part of the Harris campaign’s strategy in the last stretch of the election is to increase turnout among college-educated women, who have been a key base of Democratic voters in several recent elections, including the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats beat expectations. But the campaign also believes that some men with higher education can still be persuaded. Murphy said polls show the danger of a Trump presidency remains one of the group’s biggest concerns, they are less likely to be affiliated with a single political party, and they are late entrants into the political process.

Harris, who has run a historically tight campaign since she replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic Party less than four months ago, has spent the first weeks of the campaign talking about pocketbook issues and abortion and focusing on introducing herself to voters who have few knew about her

But in the final weeks of the campaign, she spent much of her time warning that Trump was confused and unfit for the presidency, according to an internal poll that suggests such messages could help boost turnout among undecided voters, especially those with higher education As part of that effort, she has targeted former Trump officials, including his former chief of staff John F. Kelly, warning of the danger he poses to the nation. Murphy said the campaign’s focus on Trump is also visible to other groups of voters, including voters without a college degree, but those groups also care about the economy, health care and other issues.

National polls show Harris leading by 19 percentage points among college graduates, slightly larger than President Joe Biden’s 17-point lead in 2020, according to exit polls and comparable sources. Among voters without a college degree, Trump has a nine-point lead, slightly higher than his five-point lead in 2020.

Some Democrats were concerned about Harris’ numbers in other key constituencies that helped propel Barack Obama and Biden into the Oval Office. Harris has a 24-point lead among non-white voters, much smaller than Biden’s 47-point lead in 2020. Polls that separate black and Hispanic voters show Harris leading by an average of 59 points, compared to Biden, who is leading the group by 81 points, according to post-election sources. And Harris has a slim five-point lead among Hispanic voters, compared to Biden’s 29-point lead.

In 2020, college graduates made up 35 percent of voting-age citizens, but 40 percent of registered voters and 42 percent of general election voters, according to a Census Bureau survey. Education is also one of the strongest predictors of turnout, with college graduates far more likely to vote than those with a high school diploma or less.

Democrats’ growing strength among college-educated voters, who tend to have higher incomes than those without, also means Democrats can raise more money in the race, strategists say.

“The migration of higher-income, college-educated voters to the Democratic Party will not only be very significant in terms of voters in the battleground states. Their money helps strengthen all of our campaigns across the country,” said Simon Rosenberg, a top Democratic operative. “This is one of the most significant developments in American politics in recent years, because Democrats are not used to living in a world where we vastly outnumber Republicans.”

On Tuesday, Harris will make what she believes will be her final argument to the American people at Washington’s Ellipse, the venue where Trump spoke just before the Jan. 6 riots. Campaign officials said Harris’ event, which campaigners hope will be a bigger part of the news cycle than a visit to another battleground state, is also aimed at addressing fears among college voters and others about a second Trump term.

On January 6, 2021, Trump held a rally outside the Ellipse where he called on his supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress finishes certifying the results of the presidential election. In his speech, Trump urged the crowd to “fight” for him and “peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” Later, the crowd stormed the building, delaying the work of the Congress. More than 1,400 people have faced federal charges in connection with the attack.

Harris’ speech will not focus solely on Trump, according to a campaign official who spoke on condition of anonymity to preview the remarks, which are not yet final. The Vice President will also teach a the contrast between what her first term as president might look like and what the former president’s second term might bring. She is planning a position himself as the defender of national security and the president of all Americans and argue What Trump poses a unique danger to the country.

In recent weeks, Harris has campaigned in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-Wis.). Cheney, who has endorsed the vice president — her first time supporting a Democrat — and worked to convince other Republicans to cross party lines and vote for Harris.

“What we’re seeing is a seismic shift for Republicans — college-educated voters, especially white college-educated voters, have been reliable for Republicans for decades, but now they’re turning away from Trump and his toxicity,” said Jim Messina, who led the campaign. Obama in 2012, the statement said. “These are not random voters; these are the people who come to every election, and the numbers speak for it.”

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Scott Clement contributed to this report.