Trump 2.0 looms as world leaders head to South America for summits

Lucinda Elliott

LIMA (Reuters) – World leaders are flocking to South America this month for twin summits dominated by one main theme: Donald Trump 2.0.

Peru is the first stop at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum on November 13-15, followed by the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Brazil on November 18-19. A busy month of global summits also saw the COP29 climate change conference in Azerbaijan.

For Asia-Pacific leaders, APEC on Thursday will be the first meeting since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election that ended with the victory of Republican Trump, who has promised sweeping policy changes on issues ranging from trade tariffs to climate change.

The official agenda of the forum, hosted by resource-rich Peru, includes efforts to finance the energy transition, regulate new technologies, formalize the economy and improve maritime logistics.

But diplomats from the 21st bloc said Trump’s promise to impose trade barriers on America’s partners would overshadow the summit. APEC members, from Canada to Thailand, account for almost half of world trade.

The focus will be on “what Trump 2.0 looks like,” a senior APEC diplomat said on condition of anonymity. Member states were concerned about Trump’s tough approach to China, tariffs and a rising dollar that hit global currencies, the diplomat said. The U.S. president-elect has repeatedly criticized the dollar’s rise during his first term as hurting the competitiveness of American products abroad.

Leaders will also try to calculate how to forge other new relationships after the high-profile election year of 2024.

There are new leaders of Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and Vietnam who are heading to the capital of Peru.

“A lot of this is going to be a familiarity for great leaders,” said Erin Murphy, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “There will be less focus on the APEC agenda and more on how we will work together in the new world next year?”

TRADE WAR, CHINA

Trump has proposed 10% import tariffs on all US goods and even higher tariffs on imports from China. In recent years, the simmering rivalry between Washington and Beijing has come under crossfire from many APEC countries.

Australia, which is seeking to diversify trade ties in Southeast Asia, says it will support “free and fair” multilateral trade at the summit.

Outgoing US President Joe Biden is due to travel to Lima, and Trump’s transition team is also likely to send representatives.

But Biden’s influence will be limited given Trump’s landslide victory in the election, diplomats say.

Any concessions made by Biden will be questioned when policy can change so “dramatically” under Trump, one senior diplomat in South America said.

Host Peru wants to revive the old APEC plan to create a free trade area for the entire Asia-Pacific region, Foreign Minister Elmer Shealer said, but analysts see that as a long shot without US support.

Delegates said APEC could pave the way for future environmental announcements, signaling to COP29 and G20 negotiators. Trump has already said he plans to withdraw from the landmark 2015 Paris climate accord, which would hurt the prospects for climate accords.

Executives from Exxon Mobil, TikTok and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to address delegates, along with leaders from 12 countries, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For President Xi, APEC marks a return to Latin America for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. It will also open a Chinese-built megaport on the coast of Peru.

Several Chinese analysts told Reuters that Xi will be in the diplomatic spotlight at APEC as he seeks to improve or strengthen ties with countries such as South Korea and Japan, which may be of concern to the United States under Trump.

“It’s a good opportunity for Xi Jinping, especially when it looks like the situation in the U.S. could be volatile,” Murphy said.

(Reporting by Lucinda Elliott. Additional reporting by Dayna Solomon in Santiago, Marco Aquino in Lima, Kirsty Needham in Sydney and Eduardo Baptista in Beijing. Editing by Adam Jourdan, Christian Plumb and Rosalba O’Brien)