Trump promises to deport people without documents. What would this mean for Idaho dairy?

Republican National Convention Speakers Explain Donald Trump’s Second Administration Will Carry Out ‘Largest Deportation in History’, NPR reported. Trump has said he would deport up to 20 million undocumented immigrants if re-elected. (In 2021 Pew Research Center is evaluated there were about 10 million undocumented immigrants in the US)

If that happens, Idaho will be hit hard, experts say. Foreign-born workers, including unauthorized or undocumented workers, play a critical role in the state’s dairy industry, said Phil Watson, an economist at the University of Idaho’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.

Milk prices nationwide remain flat for years, The New York Times reported in October, leaving hard, dangerous jobs in the industry low-paying and unattractive to many Americans. According to February, foreign-born workers “are filling jobs that Americans are not filling.” study conducted by the University of Idaho McClure Center for Public Policy Research.

In the dairy and other industries, “businesses hire unauthorized workers to meet their labor needs because authorized workers cannot be found,” the study said. resume says Without this labor, “enterprises adapt … by giving up business opportunities, reducing production, or even closing.”

How many Idaho dairy workers are undocumented?

Bucking national trends, the number of unauthorized immigrants in Idaho remained steady at about 35,000 between 2005 and 2021, University of Idaho reported in June

In accordance with Idaho Dairymen’s Association.

It’s hard to know how many of those workers are in the U.S. illegally, Watson told the Idaho Statesman by phone. Industry leaders are adamant that “no one (they) hire is undocumented,” he said, but “whether the documents are legal or not … they’re going to say, ‘It’s not up to us.'”

“Industry doesn’t want to do background checks,” he said.

In a 2012 study, Watson and his colleague Hernan Tejeda found that the foreign-born labor force was much larger than the census and other government population data suggest, although exact numbers were hard to come by.

Rick Narebout, the company’s CEO Idaho Dairymen’s Associationunauthorized workers are estimated to fill up to 30,000 jobs in Idaho.

A study by Watson and Tejeda found that if Idaho reduced its supply of foreign workers with less education by 50%, the state’s GDP would drop by more than $900 million. By 2024, that number will only grow, he told the Statesman.

Consequences of deportation of dairy workers

Pete Wiersma, president of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, told the Times that without foreign-born workers, Idaho’s dairy industry would have no milk. “I just don’t think we can do it,” he said.

Watson said the statement may be a bit “bom-jetty,” but the state’s economy would take a serious hit without those workers. Dairy cows must be milked at least every day. If other states had more lenient immigration policies than Idaho, “you’d definitely see herds moving,” he said.

“People don’t stop milking cows, but they change hands, for sure,” he said.

But given the harshness of the proposed policy, Neierbout said the consequences could be more widespread. Idaho is the third-largest dairy state in the country, he said, “so what happens here will affect the entire industry.”

Idaho simply doesn’t have enough workers to replace foreign-born dairy workers, he said. And if cows are not milked in time, they can quickly get sick or stop lactation altogether.

Idaho’s 4,000 dairy farm workers may feel the impact. Watson found the industry brings billions of dollars in revenue to the state, creating jobs for both milk producers and processors. Even residents who have no obvious connection to the industry can feel the consequences.

“Milkmen and cinemas are connected,” he said. “Milking cows pays the workers. Employees go to the movies… There are many jobs that they don’t realize it, but they indirectly work for the dairy.”

Rural Idaho, where dairy farms are most prevalent, will “certainly” see a “outsized impact” from losing those workers, Neierbout said.

Politicians who advocate a tough policy that bans unauthorized workers know it could backfire, Watson said, but they may believe their approach is fair regardless of whether the state or country has to enforce the rule of law.

He drew a comparison with Washington State carbon tax this, The Washington Post reportedraised gasoline prices in an attempt to make heavy emitters of greenhouse gases “pay for their pollution.” Politicians in the state “understand that they’re hurting Washington’s economy … but they’re doing it because they think it’s the right thing to do,” Watson said.

Idaho’s dairy industry has long advocated for immigration reform, fighting for changes to the nation’s guest worker visa program to create a “skilled, reliable workforce” and “keep farmers and their workers safe.” topics for conversation The Idaho Farm Bureau Federation shared with the Statesman.

The association supports legal status for agricultural workers and their immediate families, and access to a work visa program for year-round agricultural employers. Its website says that verifying the legal status of workers “is the responsibility of the US government, not employers.”

Idaho’s dairy industry has been particularly open about the topic because it faces particular challenges in accessing foreign workers. The industry is barred from using the country’s H-2A visa program, which brings workers into the country on a temporary basis and is designed to meet seasonal spikes in labor demand rather than year-round dairy operations.

“But make no mistake,” Narebout said. “By any reasonable estimate, 50% of the agricultural workforce is unauthorized. So this is much more than just a dairy issue, especially for a state like Idaho where agriculture is the backbone of our economy.”

Bird flu infects Idaho dairy farms. Is the state ready for an outbreak?

The Department of Health is investigating an illness linked to raw milk from an Idaho farm. What to know

Our backs are against the wall: solar development that divided a rural community