Puerto Rico is gearing up for Election Day as a third-party candidate makes history

SAN JUAN – The two parties that have dominated Puerto Rico’s politics for decades are losing control as they face stiffer competition from a younger generation fed up with the island’s corruption, chronic power outages and improper use of public funds.

In the island’s first-ever governor’s race, a third-party candidate has a strong second-place lead in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. state election — and some experts say there’s a chance he could win.

“This election has already become historic,” said political scientist and university professor Jorge Schmidt Nieto. “It already means before and after.”

Juan Dalmau is running for the Puerto Rican Independence Party and the Civic Victory Movement, founded in 2019. A Gaither International poll this month shows Dalmau closing in on Jennifer Gonzalez, a member of the New Progressive Party and Puerto Rico’s representative in Congress. She defeated Governor Pedro Pierluisi in his party’s primary election in June.

A Gaither poll shows Dalmau at 29% to Gonzalez’s 31% as he has nearly overtaken her since another poll in July showed him at just 24% to Gonzalez’s 43%. Jesus Manuel Ortiz of the People’s Democratic Party came third, followed by Javier Jimenez of the conservative Project Dignity party, founded in 2019.

Under pressure

Puerto Rico’s politics revolve around the island’s status, and by 2016 the pro-statehood New Progressive Party and the pro-status-quo People’s Democratic Party will share at least 90 percent of all votes in the general election, Schmidt said. .

But that year, the U.S. Congress created a federal oversight board to oversee Puerto Rico’s finances after the government announced it was unable to pay more than 70 billion dollars of national debt. In 2017, Puerto Rico filed for the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history.

The debt was accumulated by decades of corruption, mismanagement and excessive borrowing by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority still struggling to restructure its more than $9 billion in debt, the largest of any government agency.

Puerto Ricans largely rejected and resented the council created a year earlier Hurricane Maria hit the island as a powerful Category 4 storm, knocking out the power grid.

In 2020 Pierluigi won but received only 33% of the vote. His opponent from the People’s Democratic Party received 32%. It was the first time that no party had won 40% of the vote.

The power outages that have continued since the election, combined with the slow pace of post-hurricane reconstruction, have frustrated and angered voters. Under Pierrelouis, the government signed contracts with two companies, Luma Energy and Genera PR, which together control the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. Outages continue, with companies blaming a network that was crumbling even before the hurricane hit for a lack of maintenance and investment.

“During that four-year term, catastrophic things happened, especially with electricity,” Schmidt said. “It affected everyone, regardless of social class.”

Voters, he said, see Tuesday’s election “as a moment of revenge.”

Dalmau said he would evict both companies “in an organized manner” within six months if he becomes governor. Ortiz said he would cancel Luma’s contract, while Gonzalez called for an “energy czar” to look into potential Luma contract violations until another operator is found.

However, no contract can be canceled without the prior approval of the federal control board and the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau.

The candidates are also under pressure to create affordable housing, lower energy bills and the overall cost of living, reduce violent crime, boost Puerto Rico’s economy since the island has been blocked from capital markets since 2015, and improve a crumbling health care system , like thousands of people. doctors are flocking to the US mainland.

Dalmau, who suspended his campaign for two weeks in mid-October after his wife underwent emergency brain surgery, also said he would end tax breaks for wealthy US citizens from the mainland.

Apathy dominates

Despite their promises to transform Puerto Rico, the candidates face persistent voter apathy.

In 2008, 1.9 million out of 2.5 million registered voters participated in the election, compared to 1.3 million out of 2.3 million in 2020.

According to the Puerto Rico State Election Commission, nearly 99,000 new voters registered this year and more than 87,000 renewed their status.

“A much higher number was expected,” Schmidt said.

He noted that middle-aged and older people favor Gonzalez and her pro-establishment party, while people under 45 “overwhelmingly” favor Dalmau, meaning that if most young voters turn out Tuesday and fewer older voters, he could have a chance to win.

The bad rabbit factor

The months leading up to the November 5 election were controversial.

Reggaetón superstar Bad Bunny paid for dozens of billboards criticizing two of Puerto Rico’s top parties. In response, the governor’s New Progressive Party funded a billboard ad that contained obscenities about Bad Bunny.

On Friday, the singer published a multi-page letter in a local newspaper mocking Gonzalez’s pro-state party.

Although the artist has not endorsed any local official, the one person he recently started following on Instagram was Dalmau.

Meanwhile, a so-called “graveyard of corruption” was created in the capital San Juan on Thursday, displaying large black-and-white photographs of nearly a dozen politicians from the island’s two main parties who have been indicted or convicted by federal authorities. in recent years. It was created by Eva Prados of the Civic Victory Movement, who is running for the House of Puerto Rico. On Friday, police said the photos had been destroyed or stolen.

As the race has intensified, so have the number of official complaints about alleged election crimes. Among them are people who say they received confirmation about early voting, although they did not make such a request.

A constant question

On Tuesday, voters will also be asked about what the political status of Puerto Rico should be.

The optional referendum will have three options: statehood, independence, and independence with free association, under which issues such as foreign affairs, US citizenship, and the use of the US dollar will be discussed.

Regardless of the outcome, the change of status requires the approval of the US Congress.

“For many people, it’s a demoralizing exercise to vote in a non-binding referendum,” said Cristina Ponsa-Kraus, a professor at Columbia University Law School. “Puerto Ricans have voted seven times because every time they vote, Congress does nothing.”

The impulse to change status does not depend on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win on the US mainland.

“The stakes are not just who becomes president, but who controls Congress,” Ponsa-Kraus said, calling on Congress to offer Puerto Rico “non-colonial options.”

She added that it was difficult to say whether the governorship of Dalmau, who has long represented the Puerto Rico Independence Party, would affect the plebiscite vote.

“I feel like … people can tell the difference between a candidate and a status,” she said. “I think Puerto Ricans have historically not supported independence because they don’t want to lose their citizenship, and they don’t want to lose the ability to move freely back and forth between the mainland United States and the island.”

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