Hear from business owners and voters in Erie, Pennsylvania. They could help solve the White House.

Erie, Pa. (AP) — It wasn’t much when he bought it, but Michael Hooks turned an old garage into his own retreat. And the city of Erie knows it. One October afternoon, half a dozen cars honked their horns as they drove by, people stuck out their car windows to greet him.

About a dozen cars are waiting for maintenance at the shop as Hooks’ dog, adopted the day before, barks in his new cage. Exercise machines, motorcycles and power tools line the kitchen at the side of the renovated building, where his wife prepares meals. At 6’2 and a sturdy build, Hooks has a gray beard and curls that he says could be decorated by snow flurries by this time of year.

“I’m probably one of the few black businesses on this street,” he says, noting that his repair shop is on Peach Street, one of the city’s main thoroughfares. He appreciates greetings from passers-by. But he says many people who know him from the neighborhoods where he grew up will never set foot in the store. Almost all of his customers are white.

Hooks, 58, represents a desirable demographic in this year’s election — a black man and business owner in a volatile state. Both presidential campaigns targeted black entrepreneurs in their messaging, proposing a series of economic policies and legislation that both sides believed would improve the careers and lives of African Americans.

How Erie business owners and voters like Hooks view each candidate’s economic vision could determine control of the White House. Erie County has favored the candidate who has won Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992. Both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have visited the city of 94,000 in recent weeks.

“Erie is a fulcrum,” said Rhonda Matthews, co-founder of Erie Black Wall Street, a business group that supports local black entrepreneurs. The future of Erie’s economy and politics showed where the country could be headed, from population to business startups. “I think if you want to know what’s going on in the economy of the country as a whole, you can look at what’s going on in Erie.”

Concerns about “lack of predictability”

Harris released a series of economic proposals aimed at addressing affordability and encouraging small business development. Trump emphasized his promise of steep tariffs, new corporate tax cuts and an unprecedented crackdown on illegal and legal immigration into the country.

Local leaders weigh the impact of each agenda item on their Rust Belt recovery plans.

“A lack of predictability would be the worst possible thing,” said Drew Whiting, CEO of the Erie Downtown Development Corporation, which is channeling more than $100 million in private investment into the downtown area.

Whiting praised federal policies such as qualified opportunity zones, which are designed to spur economic development in low-income communities and were created as part of the Trump administration’s 2017 tax overhaul, as well as investments in Erie made possible by the bipartisan Act infrastructure, which is headed by Democratic President Joe Biden.

But Whiting added that “broad-brush” policies such as Trump’s proposed 20 percent tariff on all foreign goods risked becoming an “inflationary bomb that would crush small businesses” like those he works with. Whiting saw Harris’ proposed small business investment as a potential boon. He said the no-tax-on-tips policy, which both Harris and Trump support, would be a welcome innovation for workers.

Harris’ campaign has focused on affordability as a key voter issue amid rising inflation. Her proposals to punish companies that raise prices and her promises to expand support for health care and child care are issues the campaign says could lower costs for working families. Trump, by contrast, would lower the corporate tax rate to 15%, expand his tax credits and further cut other individual and family taxes, including by eliminating Social Security taxes.

Most mainstream economists agree with this Trump’s proposals would worsen inflation.

Local business owners who spoke to The Associated Press expressed cautious optimism about Harris’ proposals to support small businesses, though most were skeptical about the impact of federal policies on their lives.

“There are so many factors, things to consider right here and global factors,” said Gus Palioras, owner of local diner New York Lunch. The Paliouras family immigrated to the United States from Greece and bought the diner in 1970, when it was one of dozens of bustling businesses atop a post office, school and church. Now the Paliourasa diner is the only storefront left on the block.

“I’m trying to make it like Geneva,” he said, referring to the city in famously neutral Switzerland. “In this town, we could have Trump supporters, Kamala supporters and Kennedy supporters sitting next to each other in a bar.” Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ran until August, when he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.

One business owner sees his town divided

Hooks considers himself a survivor.

Born and raised in Erie, Hooks grew up in poverty and had no options, support or direction for his life. At the age of 23, he was sentenced to 30 years for dealing in marijuana. He served eight years in prison, an experience he described as “the best thing that ever happened to me.”

Prison was the first place Hooks was introduced to the scriptures—the Bible and the Koran—as well as stories about travel, business, and history.

Although he has changed his circumstances and overcome “trials and tribulations that have made me a better person,” he finds the distinctions some make between the poor, working-class, and middle-class people to be absurd.

“It’s because there are people in our country who want to be better than others,” he said in a recent interview. “You drive a Toyota Camry, I drive a Lexus. It’s the same… car. It’s just another name, but it’s a higher status.”

“For example, (Harris) says she wants to give us a $50,000 tax break or something,” he added, referring to the vice president’s proposed new small business tax credit. “But that’s never going to happen with people who think they’re better than anybody, but you live next door to me and your license plate says ‘Trump.’

In addition to his car care company, Hooks now runs a catering business. On weekends, he returns to the neighborhoods where he grew up to feed, clothe and cut children’s hair for free. His philanthropic efforts are focused on making sure that children never have to go through the experiences he once faced.

Hooks is skeptical of politicians’ ability to change the fundamental problems facing everyday Americans, but says he will vote for Harris.

“Trump had an opportunity to be great,” Hooks said, but called Trump’s first term a “disaster.” Hooks said he’d rather “go with someone who can at least try to help the little guy.”