NASCAR Xfinity 500 odds, expert picks and predictions

Race No. 35 of 36 in NASCAR Cup Series season is set for Sunday as the drivers visit Martinsville for the Xfinity 500 for the second time in 2024.

This race will be the final frontier in the NASCAR playoffs as the Championship 4 will be decided after the checkered flag flies on November 3rd.

Who will punch a ticket to Phoenix next Sunday? Find out in our free selection of rates for the Xfinity 500.

Odds to win the Xfinity 500 in 2024

Odds 10-30.

The Xfinity 500 field

A week after Joey Logano won the Championship 4 after narrowly missing out on the Round of 16, Tyler Reddick also sealed his title shot with a dramatic last-lap pass at Homestead Miami.

In both cases, these riders made it from the cut line to it and on to the next round. If the final round were to end now, Christopher Bell and William Byron would lead the points, while Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin would be eliminated, which is a shocking development considering that Larson and Hamlin are almost always in the Top 2 or Top 3 of point of view pre-qualification coefficients.

It’s once again the case that the linemen are desperate in these camps, as Larson and Hamlin have started evenly favored with Ryan Blaney close behind. Blaney is in a situation where he needs to win if he wants to try to defend his title, and the same can be said for Chase Elliott, who is right behind Blaney.

Xfinity 500 expert picks and predictions

The odds below are provided DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-30.

Xfinity 500 Prequalifying Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+400)
Denny Hamlin could really get a win, and Martinsville is a great place to do it. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has three top-5 finishes with four stage wins in his last four starts at Martinsville. He’s also led 103 or more laps in four of the last seven races here.

Kyle Larson (+400)
Kyle Larson has finished in the top 10 six times in his last eight attempts at Martinsville, including his last five finishes of second, first, sixth, second and second, respectively. Larson started from the pole and led 86 laps this spring.

Ryan Blaney (+600)
Ryan Blaney touched the field with 145 laps and 4 wins in the Championship last year. It included the finishes of the second and first stages, respectively. Blaney has nine top-5 finishes in his last 13 starts at Martinsville, including a fifth-place finish in the spring.

Xfinity 500 sleepers

Joey Logano (+1200)
Joey Logano hasn’t won in Martinsville since the 2018 playoffs. However, he has finished in the top 10 in 10 of 11 races since then. Logano was second, sixth, second, fifth and sixth respectively in the last five.

Chase Briscoe (+2,200)
Chase Briscoe has five consecutive Top 10 finishes and four straight Top 5 qualifiers at Martinsville. Last season, he finished fourth and third respectively, finishing fifth and fourth. Last spring, he led 109 laps, placing fifth and second. This spring, he qualified fifth, finished fourth and seventh in the doubles and 10th in the race.

Bubba Wallace (+2800)
Bubba Wallace won a Truck Series race here and has four consecutive Top 11 finishes at the track, including a fourth-place finish from the No. 2 starting position this spring.

Ryan Preece (+9,000)
Although he finished 15th and 20th respectively last year, he qualified on pole and ninth. Ryan Preece led 135 laps and won the first stage in the first race. The potholed road caused his death. In the second race, he finished eighth and seventh respectively in two stages. This spring, Preece rose from 22nd to ninth.

The Xfinity 500 is going away

Chase Elliott (+800)
The 2020 playoff race winner has two top-5 finishes at Martinsville in seven starts since then. With the Next Gen car, Chase Elliott finished 10th, 10th, 10th, 17th and third here.

Christopher Bell (+1200)
Christopher Bell’s 2022 playoff win is the only top-five finish in his last nine starts at Martinsville. Bell led just two of the 12 races at Martinsville. This spring, he ranked 35th.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1800)
The next-generation car didn’t sit well with Martin Truex Jr. in Martinsville. He took three wins in five starts entering this new automotive era. Since then he has finished 22nd, 29th, third, 12th and 18th. He finished in the top five in both races last season but had 47 laps between the two events to show for it. In the spring, he started fourth without a lead lap.

Xfinity 500 Prop Picks: William Byron’s Top 5

William Byron won the spring race and his fifth top-7 finish in his last seven starts at Martinsville. However, the last time we saw a sweep was in Martinsville in 2010. A safe bet is to play in the top 5.

Select: William Byron Top 5 (+100 on DraftKings)

Martinsville track analysis

Martinsville is a unique track with long straights and tight turns. This first ride of the season was 100 laps shorter than the fall visit, or about 53 miles. Will it really change the outcome?

It can.

We’ve had 15 races at Martinsville since the stages era began in 2017. In those 15 races, the leader on the 400th lap failed to win the race five times.

Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports have combined to win 18 of the last 19 races at Martinsville, with five of the last eight belonging to HMS, who went 1-2-3 this spring.

Only three times has the winner of the fall race at Martinsville not made the playoffs, all three times with Hendrick Motorsports drivers (2005 – Jeff Gordon, 2014 – Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2021 – Bowman). Additionally, only five times has a non-playoff driver won the ninth race of the postseason (2005 – Kyle Busch, 2011 – Casey Kahn, 2015 – Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2017 – Matt Kenseth and 2021 – Alex Bowman).

There have also been nine different winners this fall (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney). It’s HMS’s win in five of its last 10 fall races. They have also won the race 12 of the last 20 years and a record 29 times all-time. That’s more than double the next best mark, held by Joe Gibbs Racing (14 wins).

Xfinity 500 trends

• Front-row starters have failed to win each of the last 22 races at Martinsville.
• The last nine overall races at Martinsville have been won by a driver starting fifth on the backstretch.
• Three of the last four playoff races at Martinsville have been won by a driver below the playoff mark.

Xfinity 500 Information

Past Xfinity 500 Winners

Four of the last eight NASCAR Cup Series champions won the Xfinity 500 before sealing their championship in the final race of the year, including Ryan Blaney in 2023.

How to make Xfinity 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a complex process that can take into account any number of factors and encompasses several different types of bets. Fortunately, ours How to bet on NASCAR The guide will walk you through the basics, including how to read the odds, the different markets available and what to consider when placing your bets.

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