2024-25 Illinois State Basketball Prediction, Schedule Analysis: Big Ten Title Chase

Illinois basketball is coming off a remarkable season in which they won the Big Ten Conference Tournament and finished one game shy of making the program’s first Final Four appearance in two decades.

Now, the Fighting Illini and coach Brad Underwood have overhauled nearly their entire roster through a portal of transfers, international recruits and highly touted high school recruits.

Illinois has rebooted, but pundits don’t seem to know what to do with expectations. The Illini have finished fourth in the revamped Big Ten, and they are sitting No. 24 in the coaches poll and just outside Associated Press ratings.

Meet the roster of Illinois basketball players: Breaking down the Fighting Illini ahead of the 2024-25 season

Here’s the breakdown Illinois 2024-25 schedule by month, including a forecast of some key points of the season.

November

Nov. 4: Eastern Illinois

Nov. 8: SIU Edwardsville

November 13: Auckland

November 20: at Alabama

November 23: Maryland-Eastern Shore

November 25: Little Rock

November 28: vs. Arkansas (Kansas City)

Games against No. 2 Alabama and No. 16 Arkansas this is the first of four games against the SEC for the Illini, not counting them 91-74 exhibition loss to Ole Miss October 27. It’s the first real test for Illinois, including SEC favorite Bama, who has reached the Final Four in 2024. The Illini should be no worse than 5-2 heading into Big Ten play.

December

December 6: on the North-West

December 10: Wisconsin

December 14: Tennessee

December 22: Missouri at St. Louis, MO (Enterprise Center)

December 29: Chicago State

Another pair of SEC games — including No. 12 Vol in the return game in Champaign and the Braggin’ Rights game — punctuates the end of a disenfranchised early season. Illinois’ first two Big Ten games are relatively soft, so that should benefit a team that will need time to come together. Illinois should come out of this no worse than 3-2.

January

January 2: in Oregon

January 5: in Washington

The Illini had an easy offseason, but came out of it with their first Big Ten West coach, one against a league opponent.

January 8: Pennsylvania State

January 11: USC

January 14: in Indiana

January 19: at Michigan State

January 23: Maryland

January 26: North-Western

January 30: at Nebraska

It’s a nine-game stretch where we’ll find out if Illinois can compete for the Big Ten title. They have a good mix of road challenges (No. 18 Indiana and Michigan State) and big home games (No. 22 UCLA). If the Illini come out of this stretch with six or seven wins, expect a top-tier finish.

February

February 2: Ohio State

February 5: at Rutgers

February 8: in Minnesota

February 11: UCLA

The Big Ten West Coast’s first team comes to the State Farm Center — and it’s the No. 22 Bruins, one of college basketball’s traditional blue bloods. Should be fun.

February 15: Michigan State

February 18: in Wisconsin

February 22: vs. Duke (Madison Square Garden)

February 25: Iowa

What a tough stretch. The Illini will face four teams from the top half of the Big Ten (three at home) along with No. 5 Duke in New York. Illinois just needs to pitch at home and win another toss if they want to exit the February stretch with a record of .500 or better in this series.

March

March 2: Michigan

March 7: Purdue

March 12-14: Big Ten Tournament, Indianapolis.

It seems that the big ten planners predict No. 13 Purdue and No. 24 Illinois helping to determine the Big Ten title. The Big Ten regular-season champion has finished with five or more losses three times in the last four seasons — and we should expect that again in a league that had 10 schools with 19 or more wins last season. Illinois must split those last two and head into the Big Ten Tournament with a top four seed and a double bye.

The final Illinois basketball record prediction for 2024-25

record: 20-11, 13-7

That projection seems safe for a team that — given its coaching and talent pool — should become greater than the sum of its parts. With Will Riley ready for prime time and Kylan Boswell providing stability along with impressive international talent and returning leaders like Ty Rogers, this Illini team should surprise people in March.

This article originally appeared on the Journal Star: 2024-25 Illinois State Basketball Season Prediction, Schedule