Starting Sunday, rain and storms appear

PEORIA, Ill. (WMBD) – Central Illinois has become more desert-like lately with moderate to severe drought conditions. September was the 4th driest on record, and October continued the very dry trend. If you combine the rainfall deficit of the last two months, we have fallen almost five inches below the average rainfall of the last two months!

Finally, it looks like our first real shot of large-scale drenching rain will arrive later this weekend into next week. In the synoptic weather picture, there will be a breakthrough of the jet stream over the Rocky Mountains. This will direct southwesterly flow up across the central United States, channeling abundant moisture from the Gulf. As a result, there will be showers and thunderstorms from Sunday to Tuesday.

As we move into late Monday and early Tuesday, the picture will become more favorable for thunderstorms and potentially severe to severe storms. We’ll have a better understanding of this threat over the weekend, so stay tuned for future updates.

Here’s a general rain schedule of what to expect:

• The heaviest and most persistent rain on Sunday will be west of the Illinois River. Rains will tend to be more scattered in the east.

• Waves of showers and storms continue to arrive on Monday, again with the highest concentration west of the Illinois River.

• As a cold front moves into the area overnight Monday into Tuesday, the heaviest showers and thunderstorms are possible during this period, especially in regions farther east that will not see stronger action Sunday into Monday.

Much of the area has a pretty good chance for 2-3 inches of rain by Tuesday night. Areas west of the Illinois River will see higher amounts, with localized amounts of up to 4 inches or more possible. In the eastern regions, the probability of heavy rains is not so high. If the main axis of the rain shifts a bit further west on Sunday and Monday, this area (especially east of I-55) may miss out on stronger action until the front spreads out late Monday and Tuesday.

With all the fallen leaves this week, many storm drains are likely to be blocked. This may lead to more water bodies on the roads in the coming days. Now is the time to make sure your gutters and downspouts are clean.

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