Analysis and tips for the Breeders’ Cup and the Charlie Hall Chase

Will City of Troy win the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

John Ingles: There is little doubt that he has the most ability in the line-up, with only three-year-old Fierceness anywhere close in the rankings. It all depends on how well it handles dirt. There’s every chance he’ll sire Justfife and, with no clear equivalent in the field to Tiznov, who narrowly upset a Giant’s Causeway bid years ago, he could become Aidan O’Brien’s first race winner.

Dave Ord: Is there a pass? I will not support him – or accept him. It’s just that we’ve seen many go in there before and make no excuses, but is he different as Aidan suggests? Perhaps. He is bred to get the job done, and everything seems to have been routine during the build-up. We’ll find out his fate ahead of time — he needs to jump and roll — but if he does, it might be worth grabbing the TV controller on Saturday night. Win, lose or draw promises to be a box office

Tony McFadden: It definitely has a great opportunity as it doesn’t look like a vintage edition in the ratings. City of Troy’s form at the Juddmonte International puts him 3lb clear of Fierceness at the top of the Timeform rankings, while City of Troy is 7lb behind third-ranked rivals Sierra Leone. The key is how well he handles the dirt and his pedigree means he can be encouraged.

Which of the European Breeders’ Cup runners is your favorite?

JI: I would be happy RamatuelOdds in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The ride has stretched her to Newmarket and Ascot, but the emphasis is much more on speed at Del Mar, which means it has to be tailor-made for her. Her trainer Christopher Head no doubt took plenty of advice from his dad Freddie, who knows a thing or two about winning this race as a trainer and as a jockey, and after a good break after Royal Ascot, Ramatuel was impressive in the latter’s Prix de la Foret. time, driving the route that Goldikova often used to go to the Breeders’ Cup.

MAKE: Cogburn is a hot order for the home team in the Turf Sprint, but around 11/2 Bradsell looks like a very solid bet. He’s drawn wider than ideal, but has enough tactical speed to get a prominent position, and given the favorite has a Timeform master rating of 123, the British raider can give him plenty of trouble on ground he likes.

TM: A novel of a rebel looks to have a serious claim to victory in the second Breeders’ Cup Turf. The 2022 winner enjoyed a quiet and largely inauspicious campaign last season, but he has returned to his best this year, winning races in Qatar, Dubai, Hong Kong and Germany to enhance his reputation as a global athlete. His only defeat came when third in the King George at Ascot, but even that was not a bad effort as he showed the best of those ridden close to the pace in a race that runs a steady canter. Winning the Preis von Europa in Cologne last month should have given him a good boost for that.

How do you feel about chasing Charlie Hall?

JI: It’s not ideal that it has to give some weight to the likes of Bravemansgame and Conflated, but Gray dawns stands out as one with the most potential in the field, especially going back to three miles.

MAKE: I’ll take Bravemansgame to take his crown back. He was a penalty runner last season, and this time he gets weight in the form of Gray Dawn. He may not have enjoyed a great campaign last term but was second in the Betfair Chase and King George and will be ready for this return to action. He is the only one for me, but Mixed is feared if his jumps hold.

TM: Gray dawns was Timeform’s highest rated rookie in Britain last season and looks capable of developing into a top class chaser that remains this season. It should be noted that he has been beaten on his reappearance for the past two seasons, but trainer Dan Skelton told the Racing Post earlier this week that Gray Downing is in better condition this time around. The recent good form of Skelton’s stable is also in Gray Dawn’s favor and, if the ground is deemed light enough for him to run, I expect this newcomer to be tested.

Who among Gordon Elliott’s star-studded Down Royal team do you see making the biggest splash in the ante-post markets?

JI: Firefox he is the only horse to beat Ballyburn so far, but somehow he didn’t add to that success over hurdles last year, although he ran very well at all the major spring festivals. However, he should have no problem winning races over fences and Friday’s Novice Chase was clearly a long-term plan, given his trainer has lined up some future stars to race him over the years. Firefox also got a bumper on this card last year.

MAKE: Many things, but Romeo Coolio this is a horse that turns me on. The hounds barked at him all last winter, and although he was only a master when winning on his Rules debut at Fairyhouse, he looked genuine when going through the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham before finishing second to Jasmine De Vaux. He was wrong at Punchestown in May and will rank high among hurdlers this season – and could earn an early Sky Bet Supreme or Gallagher marker.

TM: Found fifty is to give Galway Plate winner Pinkerton a stone in the Grade 2 Chase at Down Royal on Saturday to avoid facing a penalty on his return. But I still expect him to be good enough to prevail and strengthen his claim in the Ryanair Chase, for which he looks a strong price of 33/1. Found A Fifty enjoyed a superb first season last year when his Ones record was two wins and three seconds from five starts. He was mainly campaigned at around two miles, but was a good second to I Maximus at Drynmore and remains with untapped potential at around two and a half miles.

Is there a handicapper you’re loving the look of this weekend?

JI: It sounds like White rhinoceros Both Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero rate him highly as a promising prospect this season, and he certainly has the look of someone who will handle the bigger hurdles well. He has made huge strides in handicaps over hurdles over the last couple of seasons and was successful in the first time out at Carlisle last term and also at Cheltenham later on. He looks set to find a good opportunity to make a successful chase debut at Ayr (2.29) on Saturday.

MAKE: There are several to go for but break my soul very interesting in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (3.15). A purchase for 290,000 after she won her only Irish point, she was slow to find new connections but came alive to win back-to-back races at Chepstow and Fontwell in the spring. It wasn’t a serious contest, but she had any amount on her hands, and with her confidence back, she looks like she could score just above 122 in the near future.

TM: williethebuilder was in good form when second on his reappearance at Wetherby a couple of weeks ago and is of interest over the same track and distance on Saturday (3.32). He narrowly lost in a sprint finish after conceding in the first heat, but there was a lot to like about how powerfully he traveled and how smoothly he jumped, and he remains with untapped potential.

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