Destabilization of Mexico will make the US less safe and wealthy

Shannon O’Nil
| Bloomberg’s thought (TNS)

President Donald Trump promises to remove millions of unauthorized migrants from the United States and stop new participants at the border. Returning a punitive play book from his first administration will not only solve today’s border calls. This will further destabilize Mexico and exacerbate threats to both countries.

Republicans of Congress took an anti -migrant cast, conducting a early hearing, which revives the limiting border policy. Migrant protection protocols, spokenly known as “stay in Mexico”, forced the asylum seekers to wait for a hearing in Mexico.

The name 42 was even more ambitious in its exclusion, using the covid-19 pandemic emergency to expel migrants detained at the border. And so, the construction of the wall is again in fashion, though without talking to get Mexico to pay for it.

These policies have missed the mark from the point of view of slowing or terminating unauthorized migration and damaging Mexico and the US, which are in Mexico, even years along the border.

The inflow overflowed the border cities and communities and involved transnational criminal organizations whose thieves attacked, abducted and demanded migrants, forcing some to ship drugs in the United States

Although the title 42 blocked more than 2.5 million border crossings between 2020 and 2023, it did not prevent migrants from coming. Indeed, during the first year in operation, the border fears between the ports of entry almost three times increased, since the rapid tracking process did not encourage migrants to continue to try to go. There is no reason that this policy will work better for the second time.

Adding to the injury will now be a mass deportation. Approximately four of every ten unauthorized migrants in the US-from Mexico, potential goals for an aggressive round. Moreover, in the first place in the global, Mexico agreed to accept up to 30,000 deported a month from other countries, a compromise, which the new administration can be lean and expand.

The influx of migrants passing through and departing across the border was a blessing to Mexico cartels, who scored billions from their smuggling and extortion. Focusing on the profit from the conversion of migrants from $ 4 billion to $ 12 billion a year, income can now compete with illegal drugs.

Mass deportations will expand these opportunities. More desperate dislocated people mean more income that gangs will use to expand control over Mexico and its policy. Larger resources also give them more opportunities to equip themselves and bribe officials on both sides of the border, increasing their deadly bidding in fentany and other drugs.

Increasing insecurity in Mexico also affects the legal commerce. The growing number of US plants and manufacturers depends on Mexico through the ecosystem of cross -border suppliers developed over the past three decades. Trade between the US and Mexico has increased by more than 50% since 2020, and now exceeds $ 900 billion a year.

Close is a large part of history. Mexico -based industrial parks were distributed because manufacturers try, at least partially, from China. Bumlet in Mexico of the Assembly and Production also contribute to the demand for capital goods, machines and all types of parts and investments.

Destabilized border threatens these benefits. The United States got the value of value in 2023, when migrants forced the US border patrol to stop trains coming to Eagle Pass and El Paso, Texas.

Automobiles, farmers and ranch, in particular, saw parts and agricultural products that accumulate on both sides of the border. Mass deportations can expand and expand chaos, threatening many of more than a million US -based jobs, which depend on exports to Mexico, and are much more related to the North American supply chains. The effects will go far beyond the border, as Mexico is the best export direction for more than half of the US countries.

Border shocks make it difficult for President Claudia Sheinbaum, not to mention the expansion of Mexico’s cooperation with the United States to reduce migrant flows.

In addition to the weather for implementation, they remain in Mexico during the first term Trump, the nation has increased control on its southern border and broke the migrant caravans moving north. He stopped the trains when rides came, intercepted and intercepted migrants from northern to southern Mexico, away from the US border. He cooperated with the US to target migrant smuggling.

But politicians such as the decision to make tens of thousands of non -relations deports are not popular in Mexico. According to Latinobrometro, Oxfam Mexico and Parametria/El Pais surveys, about half of the Mexicans believe that migrants are hiring and increasing crime and are generally harmful to the country. The third wants Mexico restricts migration, the fifth part wants the government to completely block migrants.

Mexico looks almost at its point of break when absorbing migrants. His National Migration Institute is underfunded and overflowing. Its asylum system is paralyzed by a lag of 300,000 applications, even when 100,000 new claims are submitted annually. The output of deported us is probably approved by these major public musimoses, which complicates Shaynbaum with US policy.

In order to protect their commercial ties and communities, the US needs orderly migration at the border. It was late in the term Baiden. The more stringent rules of the shelter and the widespread use of the CBP One program have significantly reduced the number of people that appear on the border crossings and those who cross the entrance legal ports. Likewise, the opening of new legal humanities. Over the last year, meetings on the border have fallen by about 80%.

Re -introduction of strict border laws, closing the CBP One, which regulates the appointment, ending the newer legal pathways to the United States, and many other restrictive changes will not make the border more orderly or probably even reduce unauthorized migration. Deported those who are already here to Mexico, of course, there will be no either. Instead, this will increase security problems and weaken economic ties that benefit both countries.

Last February, Trump torpedoes a bilateral bill that would strengthen the border border, aimed at the cartel, lifted the legal strip of asylum and hired more judges -immigration and asylum employees. That the US law would help. However, another reality is impossible: the real decision to fix the border should be not only bilateral but also bilateral.

– Shannon O’Nil – Senior Researcher at Latin American Research in the Council on Foreign Relations and the Author of “Globalization Myth: Why Regions Make Might”.