China’s warplanes have nearly erased the demarcation line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal

• Since 2020, the Chinese military has been flying to Taiwan’s air defense almost every day.

• The intersections of the middle line have increased dramatically, effectively erasing it altogether.

• The invasion, as well as large-scale military exercises, are draining Taiwan’s military.

China’s military aircraft pressurize Taiwan and all but eliminated an important line of demarcation, the near-daily incursions created a dangerous new norm.

Since 2020, Taiwan has been publishing regular, almost daily updates on incursions of Chinese military aircraft into its air defense detection zone. He also documented China’s continued attempts to degrade the 1955 center line of the Taiwan Strait.

Researchers Thomas J. Shattuck, Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and Benjamin Lewis, co-founder PLATracker organizations, followed the increasingly daring behavior of the Chinese. A review of data from Taiwan showed that air defense incursions over the past four years have demonstrated a growing rejection of the unofficial demarcation line established to resolve the conflict.

China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone and its crossings of the middle line in the Taiwan Strait have skyrocketed, with air defense incursions rising from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 now.

The country’s air defense extends well beyond its territorial airspace, but this area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s de facto air defenses, they send combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft back.

In 2021, the Chinese military delivered 972 aircraft to Taiwan’s air defense, and this number almost doubled in 2022. In 2023, 1,703 aircraft were registered. And 2024 looks set to be a record number, with more than 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They are also no longer limited to the air defense corner.

Middle line crossings have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, and China has been steadily erasing it altogether. During recent exercises around Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes crossed over it, marking a one-day high. A few years ago, hundreds of people could cross the border in Taiwan, but within months.

“We’ve become desensitized to the large number of military aircraft flying across the median of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago this was unheard of. Now it’s just another Thursday.”

China regards Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using its growing military to achieve reunification, raising concerns in Taipei, the US and other Western countries that China may one day adopt locking or full scale invasion Taiwan to force it to submit to Beijing’s rule.

Beijing’s tactics involve a wide range of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and large-scale military exercises aimed at to force the Taiwanese people to give up their independence.

Recently, in two joint exercises, Joint Sword 2024-A and Joint Sword 2024-B, China’s People’s Liberation Army effectively encircled Taiwan, simulating how it could blockade key ports and areas, attack sea and land targets, and seize territory .

During “Joint Sword 2024-B”, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense stated that a a record number of Chinese military aircraftmore than 150 flew into their air defense in one day. In response, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-tae, said China was seeking to “undermine stability and the status quo.”

Chinese incursions wear down Taiwan’s troops

The near-daily air defense incursions aren’t just changing the status quo in the area; they are also wearing down Taiwan’s military.

In October 2020, Taiwan’s then-Minister of National Defense, Yen Te Fa, said that the Taipei Air Force and Navy had spent nearly $1 billion to monitor Chinese flights. Taiwan has since adjusted its actions on ADIZ violations to reserve resources, but still levies taxes.

In this difficult situation, “the continuing degradation of Taiwan’s military resources and the attrition of Taiwan’s military personnel are of concern,” Shattuck said, explaining that China is “exploiting” Taiwan’s military capabilities, “filling the field and forcing Taiwan to choose what it deserves.” respond”.

That deterioration could eventually weaken Taiwan’s military if one of China’s large-scale exercises suddenly becomes the real deal, and since U.S. aid to Taiwan is “long overdue and overdue,” Shattuck said, it could hinder Taiwan’s readiness.

“The middle line of the Taiwan Strait — the de facto border that created some semblance of stability across the strait — is no more,” and “Taiwan cannot resist these PRC incursions on all fronts,” Lewis and Shattuck recently wrote.

It’s an uphill battle, they said, arguing that while China’s military activities around Taiwan “have become normalized and part of the ongoing deterioration of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” Taipei and Washington still have cards to play.

Taiwan has spent years forging a difficult relationship with Beijing, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has called Lai a “separatist”.

During his inaugural speech, Lai pledged to uphold Taiwan’s democracy as a beacon to the world, calling on China to stop bullying Taiwan. This speech ignited the relationship further, and the Joint Sword 2024-A soon followed. Lai toned down the rhetoric during his National Day speech earlier this month, showing restraint in his calls for peace and understanding.

“Lai’s National Day speech shows that Taipei is trying to find ways to offer an olive branch to China while maintaining its claims of Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty,” China Crisis Group senior analyst Amanda Xiao told BI. But China’s response, United Sword 2024-B, was sharp and sent a message.

No matter what Lai says or how he approaches the relationship, Shattuck said, China does not trust him.

“It no longer matters what olive branches the DPP president can extend because Beijing will not accept them,” he said, explaining that “Beijing is trying to accelerate its pressure on its own sovereign territory of Taiwan.” This has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

As the Chinese military continues to encroach on Taiwan’s air defenses, Washington and its allies “must remain vigilant in protesting these actions to make it clear that military coercion against Taiwan is unacceptable,” Shattuck said.

“It is unrealistic to suggest that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC’s air and sea incursions around Taiwan,” he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. “Washington,” they said, “should work to increase Taiwan’s ability to monitor the situation around its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to retreat if necessary.”

Read the original article at Business Insider