Prime ministers are creating a leadership vacuum ahead of Donald Trump’s presidency

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Canada’s provincial premiers, normally zealous guardians of their own jurisdictions, nevertheless stepped into the national leadership vacuum in Ottawa, becoming involved in foreign affairs as the country faced the incoming US presidency. Donald Trump.

Mr. Trump’s unique challenge, which has threatened to be economically devastating 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian goods and even using “economic power” to annex its northern neighbour, after months of rudderless leadership at the federal level, culminating this week in the Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcement that he is resigning.

Like many of them in the past, Canadian prime ministers have been on the phone with U.S. lawmakers at all levels of government, selling Canada’s status as the No. 1 trading partner to more than 30 U.S. states and discussing its key role on the continent. tightly integrated automotive and energy industries.

During Mr. Trump’s first term, the prime ministers were also instrumental in a coordinated “Team Canada” approach shared by Ottawa, provincial governments and business leaders as the then-president imposed steel and aluminum tariffs and pushed for a new North American Free Trade Agreement. trade

But this time, prime ministers have played a major role in the ongoing crisis with little federal leadership, although Mr. Trudeau did meet with Mr. Trump in November and was in Washington this week, speaking on CNN and meeting with U.S. business leaders.

It is unclear whether Mr. Trump will be swayed by anything anyone in Canada says or does. And veterans in the world of Canada-US relations say that while the premiers are right to step in to fill the void, there are risks to what has been a kind of provincial smorgasbord of diplomacy.

The premiers are already contradicting each other: note the cold reception of Ontario’s Doug Ford’s idea to end electricity exports to fight tariffs from Alberta’s Danielle Smith, who says she wants to double oil exports to the South. Mr. Ford even contradicted himself this week by proposing a new plan that would expand, not cut, electricity exports to the United States. The Premier of Ontario also appeared before Ottawa in November, demanding that Mexico be excluded from trade talks between Canada and the United States.

Bruce Gaiman, who served as the US ambassador to Canada under the Democratic administration of Barack Obama, says that approach is clearly changing in the vacuum in Ottawa.

“We’ll see how effective it is,” he told The Globe and Mail. “But obviously I think having a team on the same side, communicating together and staying on target is much more effective than disparate, independent views.”

Gaiman warns that whoever leads Canada’s response will have his own battles to fight as Mr. Trump is expected to unleash what the former ambassador calls a “tsunami” of change and action after his inauguration on Jan. 20 that threatens to overwhelm both Canada, so are Mr. Trump’s Democratic opponents in the United States

US President-elect Donald Trump is talking about using “economic power” to annex Canada

Ford is deploying OPP along the US border in hopes of avoiding Trump’s tariffs

The prime ministers are set to meet next week with Mr. Trudeau and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, where they are expected to propose their own corresponding tariffs on U.S. goods to add to Ottawa’s proposed targets — and demand additional action from the federal government at the border. to avert Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs.

A group of prime ministers is set to travel to Washington on February 12 to meet with US lawmakers and plead for exemptions from any tariffs, although they are not scheduled to meet Mr Trump himself. In a statement Friday, the prime ministers said they would meet with unnamed “key members of the new administration.”

To respond to Mr. Trump’s concerns about migrants and fentanyl crossing the border, the provinces shelved the British North America Act, which leaves international matters to Ottawa, even as the federal government pledged $1.3 billion for new border measures. .

now, Alberta sheriffs are set to stop suspicious traffic entering and exiting the “red zone” near the province’s border with Montana, while 200 Ontario police officers are supplementing the 250 RCMP officers responsible for Ontario’s 2,760-kilometre border with the U.S., beyond official checkpoints that are controlled Canada Border Services Agency.

Also, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said last month he would send conservation officers, who are usually responsible for finding out-of-season hunters and the like, along the 49th parallel in his province to catch illegal migrants or drug smugglers.

Meanwhile, some prime ministers began to sound like de facto federal foreign ministers.

Ms. Smith has been invited to Mr. Trump’s inauguration, where she says she will speak on behalf of Canada. Mr Ford, currently acting chairman of the Federation Council of Prime Ministers, has so far unsuccessfully sought his own meeting with the president-elect. But he appeared on US cable television – including Mr Trump’s favorite Fox News – where this week he said Canada was “not for sale” and said the two countries should instead work together in a plan called “Fortress Am-Kan” to increase energy. cooperation and fight against cheap Chinese goods.

Asked by reporters at Queen’s Park on Wednesday if he had received any feedback from Ottawa on his Am-Kan fortress concept, he said: “Nothing. I haven’t heard from them. There is a lack of leadership in Ottawa right now.”

Gary Marr, who served as Alberta’s representative in Washington from 2007 to 2011 and is now CEO of the Canada West Foundation think tank, said years of practice building relationships with premiers with provincial governors and legislators, as well as business leaders will be invaluable in trying to influence Mr. Trump.

“This is a case of provincial premiers showing national leadership in the absence of federal leadership,” said Mr. Marr, a former cabinet minister under Alberta Premier Ralph Klein.

Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, a bi-national industry organization that focuses on Canada-US relations, warned that without a coordinated message that puts provincial politics aside – and prompts local US allies to do the same – White House officials could tune out Canada .

But she praised Mr. Ford for a calm appearance on Fox News and Ms. Smith for going to the inauguration, arguing that Canada simply needs to make allies of Mr. Trump’s supporters.

“The alternative is to ignore Donald Trump or wait until he is no longer president,” Dr Dawson said. “You know, I go by the old saying, ‘If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.’