In a 12-team college football playoff, strength of schedule will play a big role in deciding the seeding

The executive director of the new 12-team college football playoff confirmed what many already knew — that while wins and the age “eye test” will play a role in determining who makes the bracket, the strength of the schedule can be the deciding factor in some discussions of the admissions committee.

Rich Clark was on the phone with reporters Wednesday to learn the details of how 12 teams will be resolved. The committee’s first list of 25 weekly rankings is released Tuesday, with brackets to be locked in using the list released Dec. 8.

“Record matters, but we’re not trying to pick the most deserving teams, we’re trying to pick the best teams,” Clark said, a statement that will likely be analyzed for weeks. “This committee should review all their work. Of course they will review the record. … But they’re going to look at strength of schedule, they’re going to look at head-to-head competition, how teams stack up against each other,” and a few other factors.

Last year, with only four teams in the bracket, there was outrage over the committee’s decision to take one-loss Alabama over undefeated Florida State. Even with an expanded pool that gives automatic berths to the top five conference champions, it’s hard to imagine the committee’s decisions won’t be subject to some criticism.

One of the new complications this year is that the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 have eliminated divisions, a byproduct of conference realignment designed to force teams to play all of their conference opponents for multiple years.

Having 16- and 18-team conferences also means that the top contenders will play each other this year. For example, surprise No. 13 Indiana (8-0) has no regular-season games against two other currently undefeated Big Ten teams — No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State. And No. 9 BYU (8-0) isn’t scheduled to face two of its closest rivals, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 23 Colorado, in the Big 12.

Clark cited the strength of the schedule, which will be calculated by an analytics firm called SportSource Analytics, as one of the best ways for the 13-man selection committee to determine which teams are better than others, especially when it comes to choosing between closely matched teams.

“It helps us look at teams more honestly,” Clark said. “If a team is playing a very easy schedule, it’s hard to judge them against a team that’s two games down but has a really tough schedule.”

Upgrade to 12 teams

— Each week beginning Tuesday, the selection committee will rank the top 25 teams, with the final list released the day after the conference title games on Dec. 7, determining how the bracket will look.

—The four highest-ranked conference winners will advance to the first round, regardless of their seeding. The next best conference finisher will receive a bracket spot, even if they are outside the top 12.

— The starting round of the playoffs involving teams 5-12 takes place on campuses on December 20-21. The title game will take place on January 20 in Atlanta.

Here’s what that group would look like based on this week’s AP Top 25

The selection committee will not follow AP data or other polls when releasing its rankings. But just for fun, here’s what the bracket would look like if it was based on Top 25 AP that came out on Sunday, and if the higher-ranked teams all won their conference titles:

—5 vs. 12: Boise State at PA (Boise State of the Mountain West will be the fifth-best conference champion despite being ranked No. 15)

—6-11: Clemson at Ohio State (Buckeyes beat Tigers 49-28 in 2021 semifinal)

—7 vs. 10: Texas A&M at Texas (the teams meet on Nov. 30 in the regular season, but division rules won’t prevent a rematch)

—8 vs. 9: Notre Dame at Tennessee (The Irish overcame that bad loss to Northern Illinois in the AP poll; will the committee be as lenient?)

Goodbye:

1 — Oregon (would play quarterfinals in Rose Bowl)

2 — Georgia (will play the quarterfinals in the Sugar Bowl)

3 — Miami (Peach Bowl)

4 — BYU (Fiesta Bowl)

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