Will Hendrick’s drivers be eliminated from Championship 4?

Just a few weeks ago, the media center immediately following the Charlotte road race focused on whether all four Cup title-eligible drivers heading to Phoenix would be Hendrick Motorsports.

Now, maybe they won’t be.

He likely will be when they enter Sunday’s final elimination race in Martinsville. With two automatic bids already set Joey Logano (Penske) and Tyler Reddick (23XI), only two places are open. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing) has a 29-point advantage at the cutoff, while the HMS driver William Byron has an advantage of seven points over his teammate Kyle Larsonthe first driver is currently on the outside looking.

Denny Hamlin (JGR) is 18 points behind Ryan Blaney (Penske) and Chase Elliott (Hendrick) have the mathematical odds to point their way, but for all intents and purposes should win.

If Blaney — the reigning winner of that race — or Hamlin (a five-time Martinsville winner but last coming in 2015) wins and Bell returns to the top 10 in stages and the race, Hendrick will ultimately be out of the Drivers’ Championship.

How in the world did everything fall apart so quickly?

It started with disqualification Alex Bowman in Charlotte when his car did not meet the post-race weight requirements. It knocked him out of the playoffs.

Then there was Las Vegas, where Elliott became the innocent victim of an accident Martin Truex Jr. moved towards him, pushing him into Reddick, who was trying to make a move on the outside. Elliott, who has just one win this year so doesn’t have many playoff points to help him advance, finished a few laps behind and faced must-win situations at Homestead or Martinsville.

In both of the last two races in Las Vegas and Homestead, Larson has had problems. Pit crew problems ruined his hopes of a win in Las Vegas, and then a flat tire forced him to try to rally at Homestead, which he nearly did before traffic went haywire in the final 10 laps and damaged his car.

What about Byron? He looked somewhat like himself as he came home fourth and sixth in two races. But very good may not be enough when other drivers seem more capable of winning races.

The good news for Hendrick is that Martinsville remains one of the organization’s top tracks. Byron won there in the spring when hundreds of Hendrick employees attended the organization’s 40th anniversary celebration. Larson finished second in that race and won at Martinsville in the spring of 2023 at a track that is not usually one of his best.

Add in softer tires that potentially result in more overtaking, and that could help Hendrick drivers who are talented and find a way to overtake.

But can they have flawless days on pit road? Will they make the right choice when it comes to pit strategy?

There is no doubt that Byron and Larson will have strong cars on Sunday. But depending on how the race unfolds, they could come to an end, as even strong days may not be enough.

Of course, Hendrick’s pilots could get both of the remaining seats. Larson, Byron or Elliott could win with an automatic bid, and if Bell has a bad day, Larson or Byron could get the points. But it looks like a long-term prospect.

Most likely, they will take one of their cars. Since Larson has six wins and seems to have a bit more speed than Byron in recent races, it seems like he should be the same — until you look at how he’s seemingly found trouble in as many events as he’s won. Byron is just as difficult to predict given his good recent performances, but still seems like a small tick to keep him from winning.

For those Hendrix fans who are nervous, it’s understandable. They should be nervous for the checkered flag Sunday. At the very least, if things don’t go their way early in Sunday’s race, Hendrick’s fans can at least have hope — if anything, they’ve learned over the past couple of weeks that championship hopes can change quickly.

Bob Pokrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has covered motorsports for decades, including more than 30 Daytona 500s, and has worked for ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobsleigh.

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