Justin Trudeau vs. India: Relations hitting rock bottom in 2024 over Khalistan issue

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned as party leader and prime minister on January 6. In a speech announcing his decision, Trudeau said “this country deserves a real choice” in the next election, after announcing his resignation as prime minister.

Trudeau says if he has to fight “internal battles,” it’s clear he can’t be the best choice for Canadians. He said parliament has been “paralyzed for months” – after what he calls the longest session of a minority parliament in Canadian history. Trudeau added that this is why the country needs a new session of parliament, and the chamber will be adjourned until March 24.

The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, saw its relations with India hit an all-time low last year because of alleged sympathies for Khalistan separatists.

India has accused the Trudeau government of turning Canada into a haven for Khalistan extremists. Delhi also criticized Canada for engaging in “vote bank politics”. In 2016, Trudeau boasted that he had four Sikhs in his cabinet, more than Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet in India.

According to the 2021 census, Canada is home to 771,790 Sikhs, making it the second largest Sikh country outside of Punjab, India. Sikhs have significant political influence in Canada.

Along with deteriorating relations with India, Trudeau is facing internal problems within his own party. At least 21 Liberal MPs have publicly called for Trudeau’s resignation, with many expressing concern following the resignation of Christy Freeland on December 16, 2024.

In October 2024, 24 Liberal MPs signed a letter calling for his resignation after the party lost two federal by-elections over the summer in its traditionally safe seats of Toronto and Montreal.

Bilateral relations are at an all-time low

Relations between India and Canada hit a new low after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijar. In September 2024, the two countries expelled each other’s diplomats following Canada’s claims of “credible allegations” that Indian government agents were involved in Nijar’s murder.

India retaliated by expelling a Canadian diplomat, citing growing concerns about Canadian diplomats interfering in India’s internal affairs and supporting anti-India activities. India also briefly suspended visas in Canada, citing security threats.

In October 2024, Canada recalled 40 diplomats from India, with India demanding “parity” in diplomatic representation. The diplomatic standoff worsened when New Delhi expelled six senior Canadian diplomats and recalled its staff from Canada.

Ottawa, in turn, expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma, as “persons of interest” in the June 2023 killing of Nijar.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) accused Indian agents of engaging in “serious criminal activity” including “murder, extortion, intimidation and coercion” on Canadian soil. India rejected the allegations, calling them “ridiculous” and accusing the Trudeau government of using the situation for political gain. The MEA alleged that Canada was deliberately allowing violent extremists and terrorists to attack Indian diplomats and civic leaders in Canada.

In October 2024, the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs accused Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah of orchestrating a campaign of intimidation in Canada. Ottawa also said it had evidence implicating Indian government agents in the 2023 killing of Khalistan terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijar, a Canadian passport holder.

India has demanded Canada provide evidence of the involvement of its officials in Nijar’s murder, but has so far not received it.

Despite numerous exchanges of information, including meetings at international forums such as the G20 summit, Canada has been unable to provide any conclusive evidence of India’s involvement in the murder.

Election forecast

Trudeau’s popularity has been steadily declining since the COVID-19 pandemic, as his government has failed to reduce inflation or unemployment. The ongoing cost of living crisis has also made housing unaffordable for many Canadians.

The Liberal Party is expected to lose the upcoming federal election, with the Conservative Party currently leading by 21 points. According to an Ipsos poll last year, only 28% of Canadians want Trudeau re-elected, and only 26% plan to vote Liberal.