Macroeconomics guru Lyn Alden details forecast for next year, says 2025 likely won’t be ‘explosive’ for liquidity

Macroeconomics guru Lyn Alden believes that global liquidity will continue to grow in 2025, but it probably won’t be as explosive as the surges seen in previous years.

In the new interview on the Less Noise More Signal YouTube channel, the analyst says he expects global liquidity, which has historically been correlated with risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) will grow more than in 2022, but less than in 2017 or 2021.

Instead, Alden sees steady liquidity growth in 2025, not a parabolic movement.

“I really don’t expect an explosive 2025. I think the liquidity conditions are not that much vertical liquidity, but I think 2022 (was) a particularly bad year for liquidity — it was a terrible year for liquidity — it stabilized in 2023 and 2024 (and is) gradually returning to growth .

I think 2025 either continues to gradually move upwards or may move a bit faster, but I wouldn’t expect fireworks.”

Alden says so much debt is already locked up at lower costs from when interest rates were close to zero in 2020 and 2021, meaning lower rates now aren’t spurring as much refinancing and investment as usual.

“There are sectors of the U.S. economy that are slowing, and rate cuts are not very effective in addressing those problems for several reasons. One is that so much debt is already locked in at lower rates, so unless you’re willing to cut all the way to zero — which I don’t think will happen — it doesn’t really encourage a lot of new refinancing and so on.

And secondly, sometimes when you cut the short end, the long end doesn’t go down or up, and that’s what a lot of people actually borrow is the longer end.”

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