Desperation in Tbilisi as Georgian Dream leads in election results

Tbilisi, Georgia —

The streets of Tbilisi echoed with despair on Sunday as preliminary results pointed to a decisive victory for the ruling Georgian Dream party in Saturday’s election.

According to 99% of polling stations, Georgian Dream won 54.2% of the vote, consolidating its grip on a nation polarized over its political future. Most opposition party leaders say the vote, seen as a referendum on Georgia’s path to a deeper alliance with the West or closer ties with Russia, was rigged.

Judging by the previous results, it was difficult for the opposition to mount a strong challenge. According to the first calculations, the Coalition for Change — 10.8%, the National Movement “Unity” — 10%, “Strong Georgia” — 8.7%, the “For Georgia” party of Giorgi Gakharia — 7.7%.

When the exit polls were announced, both the ruling party and the opposition initially declared victory, although official results quickly showed that Georgian Dream won its fourth term with more votes than it received in the last election.

“Such cases are rare all over the world, when the same party achieves such success under difficult circumstances,” Bidzina Ivanishvili said shortly after the first exit polls were announced. The oligarch is considered the real leader of the “Georgian Dream”.

Shortly afterwards, Hungarian President Viktor Orbán congratulated the Georgian Dream, and the editor-in-chief of the Russian state broadcaster RT Margarita Simonyan wrote in Telegram: “Georgians have won, well done.”

“This is election theft, a constitutional coup, and Georgian Dream will answer for it according to Georgian law,” said one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change, Nika Gvaramii. He said his coalition had discovered a “technological scheme” used to manipulate election results.

“We promised to protect your votes and I apologize for not discovering this elaborate scheme earlier,” Gwaramia said.

Elene Khoshtaria, another member of the Coalition for Change and leader of the Droa party, echoed Gwaramiya.

“We are firm and principled in our position that these elections were stolen, and we will not accept this. Starting tomorrow, we are moving into continuous protest, organized and coordinated. The protest will be on the streets, and we will announce the time and place,” she said.

Unity-National Movement also considers the elections stolen.

“Oligarch Ivanishvili stole victory from the Georgian people and thus stole the European future. On behalf of the Unity-National Movement Party, we declare that we do not recognize the results of the elections,” party leader Tina Bokuchava said.

Some independent observers also criticized the announced result.

“Based on the analysis of the pre-election situation, widespread manipulations on election day and unprecedented pressure on voters, we believe that the preliminary results released by the CEC do not reflect the true will of the citizens of Georgia. We will continue to demand the annulment of these results,” said Londa Toloraya from the My Voice NGO coalition.

Many analysts in the country call fraud the source of the ruling party’s success.

Other observers also argue that the success of Georgian Dream comes not only from its strengths, but also from the weaknesses of the opposition. Due to internal conflicts, lack of coherent policies and shifting political allegiances, the opposition parties have not been able to offer a convincing alternative to the ruling party.

“I voted for change … by elimination,” a 20-year-old first-time voter told VOA on condition of anonymity. It was a sentiment echoed by many.

“The opposition looks bankrupt, relying on the fact that a) the “Georgian dream” will collapse by itself, or b) the West will finally overthrow Ivanishvili’s regime. Accordingly, they failed to conduct a real campaign, even fewer events than in the previous elections,” said Levan Ramishvili, associate professor of the Department of Political Philosophy and International Relations at the Free University of Tbilisi.

“Added to this is the lack of moral clarity in the West, which is characterized by hesitation, ambiguity and a ‘leading from behind’ approach – granting EU candidate status one moment and suspending it the next; the imposition of sanctions, but only against marginal persons,” he said.

Ahead of the election, the United States and the European Union expressed concern, citing a perceived shift away from democratic principles and closer ties with Russia.

“The picture is now very clear – despite pressure, intimidation, violence and vote-buying, they lost the capital and Rustavi, and they also lost catastrophically abroad. But in regions where there was less supervision and people were more vulnerable and dependent on the state, they won with Kadyrov’s figures of 80-90%. (The international community) cannot agree that this is fair. Legalizing this would mean giving Russia a major geopolitical victory,” said George Kandelaki, project manager of the Laboratory for the Study of the Soviet Past.

Analysts and oppositionists have warned that Ivanishvili is orienting the country towards Russia, strengthening control over the mass media and independent institutions.

Earlier this year, the government passed a controversial “foreign agents” law modeled after Russian legislation. It targets non-governmental organizations and media that receive foreign funding, mostly from the West. The law led to mass protests in the country and a subsequent brutal response from the government.

Like their leaders, many opposition voters question the legitimacy of Georgian Dream’s leadership.

“No one in my circle voted for them. How did they get a million votes?” asked Davit, a man in his 30s. Another said: “The government you elect is the government you deserve,” expressing disappointment with fellow Georgians, while a third added: “They sold the country for a salary of 300 GEL (about 120 USD)”.

The main supporters of the Georgian Dream are “budget voters”, public sector workers and welfare recipients, especially in rural areas where employment opportunities are limited. The party relies on these voters, many of whom fear losing their jobs or benefits if the party loses.

“The elections that took place were neither fair nor free,” said Ramishvili of the Free University. “After the 2018 presidential election, Georgian Dream has created a powerful electoral machine that relies heavily on bribery, intimidation of vulnerable voters and fear of war. This machine works by using both administrative and budgetary resources for party purposes, as well as outright bribery.”

Over the years, Georgian Dream has forged strong alliances with a wide range of political actors and groups, from pro-Russian social conservative groups to street hooligans, and most notably with the highly popular Georgian Orthodox Church.

“Last week, my priest officially asked us from the pulpit to vote for ‘Georgian Dream,'” said Rusudan, a middle-aged voter. “He even said that anyone who voted for the opposition would lose their right to receive communion.”

This message, echoed in churches across the country, has strengthened support for the Georgian Dream among religious and traditionalist voters over the years.

The ruling party presented the election as a choice between war and peace, calling critics at home and abroad part of the “global war party” — a term borrowed from Kremlin narratives. For a country battered by wars with Russia in the 1990s and again in 2008, the message resonated strongly.

Meanwhile, the opposition viewed the election as a referendum on ending Russia’s influence.

“Against the background of growing Russian aggression and an indecisive West that is unable to defend its values, anti-Western and anti-liberal forces are becoming stronger in our region. These groups skillfully use the inability of the West to protect their principles, citing as an example Russia’s unpunished aggression against neighboring countries,” said Ramishvili.

So far, “Georgian Dream” is celebrating an obvious victory. But many Georgians, especially young urban dwellers, feel increasingly disillusioned. As the results are confirmed, Georgia faces deep divisions and an uncertain path forward.