Regional seats secure LNP Queensland election victory and crime resonates with voters

In the end, law and order prevailed and regional Queenslanders added the LNP to government with a mandate to get tough on crime.

Needing 12 seats to win a majority, the LNP won 11 electorates in regional centers with some double-digit swings, while a few more are still too close to call as voting continues.

LNP leader David Crisafulli announced the victory late Saturday night.

It will be only the second time the LNP has formed a government in Queensland since the Nationals and Liberals joined forces in 2008, and the result ensures the Conservative party’s political dominance outside Brisbane.

Labor has been in power since 2015 after a landslide victory over the one-term LNP government led by Campbell Newman.

Shocking results

The loudest loss for Labor was McKayabout 970 kilometers north of Brisbane, where it occupied more than a century.

Nigel Dalton, a long-serving former police officer who retired this year, captured this electorate for the LNP with a huge 17 per cent margin.

He was one of several police officers elected to the LNP in regional Queensland, reflecting his focus on youth crime and widespread dissatisfaction with Labor’s handling of the issue.

Mr Dalton said Mackay’s constituents wanted change.

“We need to move forward, we need to deal with youth crime, we need to deal with health care,” he said.

“And I’m going to work very hard to get that done.”

It was a tight race for Queensland’s regional votes, with the leaders of the two main parties making at least two dozen trips to the regions, targeting the cities of Townsville, Cairns, Rockhampton and Mackay.

Despite this, many opinions were passed before election day. More than 71 per cent of voters in Bundaberg had already cast their ballots before the weekend, and those votes are likely to determine the outcome today.

Here’s a breakdown of how the regional Queensland election went.

Far North Queensland

The LNP is on track to win the seat Barron Rivernorth of Cairns, where local businesswoman Bree James was the first tip to unseat the ALP’s Craig Crawford, but the results remain in doubt. Mulgravewhere crime was a problem.

Mulgravewhich covers the southern suburbs of Cairns and extends south to Gordonvale, has been held by the Pitt family since 1998, with Curtis Pitt standing down at that election.

The 10-candidate field split the vote, but LNP candidate and former Cairns mayor Terry James narrowly edged Richie Bates after a margin of almost 15 per cent. Preferences can determine the outcome.

The state’s northernmost seat will be contested by the LNP Cook with David Kempton taking the seat from ALP First Nations candidate Cynthia Louis.

As in most parts of Queensland, crime was a concern among voters.

Em Adams told the ABC she voted LNP because of youth crime.

“Youth crime is the biggest problem in the area and the state and (LNP candidate David Kempton) seems to be the only person who wants to change the rules,” she said.

Barron River voter Bianca Allen told the ABC something needs to change.

“What we have now is not working, something needs to be done.”

The ALP’s cost-of-living measures found some support in Far North Queensland, where Labor’s Michael Healy retained Cairns, fending off a volatile swing to the LNP’s Yolanda Ench.

Cairns can become one of the few red dots in the blue ocean in the Queensland region.

North Queensland

As expected, the LNP made big gains in Townsville, where youth crime was a hot-button issue for voters.

Electrician and small businessman Adam Bailey will become the new MP Townsville after defeating former resources minister Scott Stewart.

Mr Stewart told the ABC the youth justice issue had hurt the ALP in north Queensland.

“Always struggled with the issue of youth justice – although we’ve had great policies, it was a key issue, they just wanted it to stop and they wanted to give someone else a chance,” Mr Stewart said.

“It’s a tough question, and you’re not going to solve it right away.”

While youth crime has fallen in Queensland, offenses such as illegal driving remain stubbornly high in Townsville.

In 2023, this crime reached a high in Mundingburr: 1,046 crimes per 100,000 people.

Police officer Janelle Poole took Mundingburra from Labour’s Les Walker with a strong first preference vote and a smaller than expected result for CAP’s Michael Pugh.

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LNP candidate Natalie Marr unseated Aaron Harper Thuringowa from the ALP, where many voters reacted strongly to the abortion debate that erupted mid-campaign.

Leana Touche was undecided heading into the booth, but said she felt Crisafulli’s handling of the abortion issue turned her away from him as prime minister.

Ms Thatch said she was concerned about crime in the city, but said she did not support the Katter Party’s plan for Castle Law.

KAP had hoped for strong support in the three Townsville locations, but this did not materialise.

KAP leader Robbie Cutter’s stance on abortion and corporal punishment did not tarnish his result with a dominant first preference vote in Treygarthe second largest electorate in the state.

From his Mount Isa home, Mr Cutter said he would do his best for the region despite what he described as a “disgraceful campaign” against the KAP by the LNP.

“We will leave our emotional baggage at the door and do what we can for North Queensland,” he said.

Central Queensland

KAP retained three seats but struggled to hang on Miraniwhich he picked up after Stephen Andrew was rejected by the One Nation Party and he joined the KAP.

Nick Dametto stayed Hinchinbrook for KAP and Shane Knuth held off the switch to the LNP in their northern electorate Hill but generation player and LNP candidate Glen Kelly takes Mirani down to the wire.

His strong primary vote signaled a major shift to the LNP in central Queensland, where the party has gained valuable electorates McKay, Keppel and Rockhampton.

The ABC’s chief election analyst Anthony Green predicted the LNP would take Rockhampton with former councilor Donna Kirkland ousting Labor’s Craig Marshall and the preferences of independent former mayor Margaret Strelow proving decisive.

One Rockhampton elector, Jordan Ellis, told the ABC that roads and crime were the biggest issues influencing his decision this election.

“I just think Labor has had enough of a shot, especially in the Bruce Highway area,” he said.

“They made promises in the past, but they didn’t deliver. It’s time for a change.

“Crime has also, particularly in this area, been pretty bad for two years and hasn’t really changed.”

The neighboring electorate of Keppel won by former deputy mayor Nigel Hutton of Labour’s Brittany Lauga and One Nation’s James Ashby.

Sunshine and Gold Coast/Wide Bay

The ALP will be hoping they can hang on Bundaberg and Maryborough in Wide bay and Haven on the Gold Coast to prevent blue washing in the Queensland region.

The race to the finish will be tough, with the countdown starting at 9am today.

Bundaberg MP Tom Smith started his campaign with the narrowest margin (0.01 per cent) after polling just nine votes in 2020.

A slight swing in his favor would offer some hope, but with 70 percent of the vote cast in early voting, the lead is far from certain and LNP candidate Bree Watson could win.

Nearby, there will also be close monitoring of the count Maryborough where a 13.5 per cent swing could see Labour’s Bruce Saunders go to the LNP’s John Barunis.

LNP announced the coastal center Hervey Bay where David Lee easily ousted Labour’s Adrian Tantari.

The LNP also held Caloundra and ex-police officer Marty Hunt found Nicklin on the Sunshine Coast, eliminating Labor from the region.

The state’s only independent MP, Sandy Bolton, abandoned a strong campaign by former mayor Claire Stewart to retain her seat in Noosa.

Labor may also struggle to retain the electorate at the border Pumice where 22-year-old LNP candidate Ariana Doolan is ahead of Ali King.

On the Gold Coast, the LNP vote strengthened in most electorates with swings of more than 10 per cent in burley and Kurrambin.

LNP leader David Crisafulli won more than 70 per cent of the vote in his electorate of Broadwater.

Former housing minister Meagan Scanlon is facing a strong swing to the LNP’s Bianca Stone to win the central Gold Coast seat Haven.

A medical professional who spoke to the state’s premier-elect during the Haven election on polling day is not yet convinced that a change of government will improve the lives of Queenslanders.

“If we get the chance, I’d like to have the opportunity in four years to earn your trust,” Mr Crisafulli assured her outside a polling booth in the Gold Coast marginal seat.

“Well, we’ll see,” she said.

Sentiments that could sweep across the state today.