Visual Field Correspondence Index: Week 11

Compliance index

Every week at Field Vision, we compile The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that ranks every player in an NFL matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We partner with Footballguys to bring you the best of our Matchup Index every week. . In our Matches of the Week article, we take a look at Footballguys’ top three players in each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matches of the week. Then we’ll add our bonus Field Vision pick for each position: a player who isn’t ranked No. 1 and could be worthy of a start based on a favorable matchup that week.

Fit index for top 3 QBs

Josh AllenBuffalo

Josh Allen enters week 11 with a Compliance index -3 against the bosses. with Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts with both playing Thursday night, we have a chance for some new blood in the QB section this week. We project Allen to 227.7 receiving yards, 2.3 percent below his expectations in Vegas, but we see opportunity in the running game. We project him to have 38 yards rushing, which is 10 percent more than expected and a full 10 yards more than Footballguys’ projection of 28. Through the air, the Chiefs have given up at least 2 touchdown passes to each of the last 3 quarterbacks they’ve faced. and they gave two on the ground to Brock Purdy in the 7th week. The matchup isn’t great for Allen, but Allen still has opportunities to shine in Week 11.

Brock PurdySan Francisco

Brock Purdy has a Compliance index -3 and in Week 11 against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA/play turnovers this season. We’re projecting Purdy at 255.7 passing yards and 18.2 rushing yards, which is slightly less than Footballguys’ projections in both categories. Purdy is averaging 272.7 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns this season. Since Week 4, the Seahawks have allowed defenses 246 yards or more in every game, losing five of six games. They also gave up multiple touchdowns in all but one of those games. There’s definitely an opportunity for Purdy to do some damage through the air in Week 11.

Lamar JacksonBaltimore

Lamar Jackson plays for the Steelers with a Compliance index -15. We project Jackson at 228.3 yards, 3.5 percent below Las Vegas expectations and 20 yards below Footballguys’ number 248. We also show a deficiency in the running game, projecting him at 41.3 yards, 5 percent below expected and less than Footballguys number 50. Despite the reputation, the Steelers are only 14th in adjusted EPA/play drop this season, but ranked third. One of Jackson’s biggest issues this season is that the Steelers haven’t given up a rushing touchdown to a running back this season. Could Jackson buck the trend? Of course he could, but the odds are against him. You obviously start Jackson every week, but you can lower the expectations against the Steelers in Week 11.

Bonus QB – Jared Gofflions

If you’re looking for streaming options, you can head over to the Footballguys QB12 list for the week, Jared Goff. Goff has a Compatibility index +36 in Week 11 against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is ranked 32nd, aka dead last, in our adjusted EPA/game through 10 weeks. We project Goff to have 238.1 passing yards, 7.7 percent more than his Vegas over/under. Since Week 3, the Jags have given up all but one of their passing touchdowns to a quarterback all week. There’s no doubt Goff is looking to bounce back from last week’s five-interception game, and he has an opponent to do just that.

Match index for top 3 RBs

Christian McCaffreySan Francisco

Kristan McCaffrey, Footballguys’ No. 1 running back this week, has a Compatibility index +47 against the Seahawks in Week 11. Notably, the 49ers rushed for 228 yards without McCaffrey in a Week 6 win at Seattle. In this we show the point of attack, boxing and personnel advantages for him. Seattle ranks 28th in our EPA Adjusted Rush/Defensive Game. And that’s without even mentioning McCaffrey’s impact in the receiving game, where the 49ers show an edge on the short side of the field. Not only is McCaffrey a good starter this week, but he’s also worth spending on in DFS formats in Week 11.

De’Vaughan AuchanMiami

De’Vaughan Auchan enters week 11 with a Compliance index -8 against the Raiders on Sunday. We project Achane at 62.6 yards, which is slightly (0.2 percent) higher than his Vegas Over/Under compared to Footballguys’ projection of 65 yards. Achain’s matchup gets tough in the receiving game, where we project him to 33.4 yards, 5.8 percent below expectations. In order to have the week he wants, Achain will need to find the end zone. The Raiders have given up 10 touchdowns to running backs in nine games this season. Will it be Achane who finds the endzone out of the Dolphins’ backfield? If so, it might save his fantasy.

Alvin KamaraNew Orleans

Alvin Kamara has a Compliance index -15 in Week 11 against the Browns. With the exception of the 155-yard game against the Panthers, Kamara has been pretty smooth the last six weeks, finishing with his second-highest total of 67 against the Chargers in Week 8. We’re projecting Kamara at 69.6 yards, down four percent. his Vegas total and 37.9 receiving yards, 1.6 percent below expectations. The Browns run defense is in the middle of the pack. They have yet to give up more than 85 yards on the ground to any running back this season, but have lost nine rushing touchdowns on the year. However, Kamara is always a threat, and the Browns haven’t given up a single touchdown to run through the air this season. You’ll obviously run Kamara if you have him, but I wouldn’t look for him in DFS formats.

Bonus RB – Nick ChubbCleveland

For our bonus pick, we’ll go with the same game and Footballguys, ranked 24th, Nick Chubbwhich has a Compatibility index +26 in the 11th week. New Orleans’ rushing defense is surprisingly poor at 29th in EPA-adjusted rushing/game through 10 weeks. Chubb is slowly working his way back into the game, and the Browns will continue to use him more throughout the season. We project Chubb to 63.6 receiving yards, 5.2 percent more than his total in Vegas. Additionally, New Orleans has given up multiple rushing touchdowns to individual running backs in three of the last four weeks. If you look for him in DFS, Chubb could pay off for you in Week 11.

Fit index for top 3 WRs

Nico CollinsHouston

Nico Collins goes to week 11 with a Compatibility index +3. It’s not much above neutral, but it’s the best of Footballguys’ top three receivers this week. Collins was on fire before pulling up with a lame hamstring in Week 5 after catching another bomb from CJ Stroud. He could be just what the doctor ordered for this Texas offense to get back on track against the Cowboys. Dallas ranks 30th in EPA-adjusted rating/rebound defense this year. One downside is that Dallas hasn’t given up a multi-touchdown game to any player this season. If you’ve been waiting for Collins to come back, you probably don’t care what I have to say. You are simply full of desire to include him in the starting line-up.

Amon-Ra St. BrownDetroit

Amon-Ra St. Browns goes to week 11 with a Compliance index -13 against the Jags defense. We project him to have 74.5 yards, which is 3.2 percent less than his total in Vegas. The Jaguars show an advantage in the short and intermediate part of the field, where St. Brown likes to operate. The Jags were able to hold on Justin Jefferson to just 48 yards in Week 10. We’d never say not to start St. Brown, but you might not want to look for him in DFS formats or trades this week.

Ja’Marr ChaseCincinnati

Ja’Marr ChaseWR1 Footballguys this week Compliance index -27 against the Chargers defense this week. If you’re Chase’s manager, you had some success against the Ravens last week, and rightfully so, but it could be a different story against the Chargers. Chase has often been a boom-or-bust player, and the Chargers have the seventh-best adjusted EPA/play against dropouts this season. Field Vision projects Chase at 74.6 yards, 6.2 percent below his total in Vegas. In fact, we’re confident enough in it to make him one of our best bets in Week 11. Do what you will with this information. If you have him, you’re obviously going to dump him and hope for the next boom week, but we don’t recommend going out and trying to buy Chase at his current price earlier this week. It could be much cheaper next week.

Bonus WR – DJ MooreChicago

DJ Moore, this week’s Footballguys 31st receiver, has a Compatibility index +67 in its 11th week, it was projected to be 12.8 percent higher than its total in Vegas. That doesn’t make for a big week, but if you can get him on the cheap, Moore could be a good option to start this week with a projected 50.2 receiving yards. Green Bay’s defense has given up at least a touchdown to a wide receiver in all but one game this season. Chicago changed offensive coordinators this week, and this week we saw a one-week increase in productivity due to frequent coaching changes. If you’re trying to get by on the cheap with a wide receiver and need a DFS option, Moore is a good choice.

That’s all for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision app to learn about each player in each game with a matchup index, and check out our own Threat and Havoc Ratings, which rank attacking (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their positional groups. Until next time, enjoy Week 11.

Photos courtesy of Imagn Images