Georgia’s ruling party is ahead in a crucial vote on Europe

Georgia’s ruling party is holding key elections focused on the country’s future path in Europe, according to an official forecast.

The “Georgian Dream” party of billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili is gaining almost 53%, based on the forecast of more than two-thirds of the votes counted, the Central Election Commission reports.

The increasingly authoritarian party and four opposition groups, which are trying to end their 12-year rule, earlier claimed victory based on competing exit polls.

A large number of Georgians went to the polls in the South Caucasus state, which borders Russia, on Saturday, and there were numerous reports of voting irregularities and violence near polling stations.

Two people were hospitalized, and the headquarters of the largest opposition party was attacked by supporters of the ruling party.

One opposition official in a city south of the capital Tbilisi told the BBC that he was first beaten by a local Georgian Dream deputy, and then “10 more men came and I didn’t know what was happening to me.”

The opposition described the high-stakes vote as a choice between Europe and Russia. Many considered the vote to be the most important since Georgians voted for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

As soon as the voting ended, an exit poll for pro-opposition TV channels gave “Georgian Dream” 40.9% of the vote, and the total of the four opposition groups was 51.9%. But a survey by the large TV channel “Imedi”, which supports the government, gave “Georgian Dream” 56%.

After some time, the Central Election Commission (CEC) published the first forecasts. The CEC has been criticized for being too close to the government and hastily implementing electoral reform ahead of the election without proper consultation.

If the forecast is confirmed, Georgian Dream will secure a majority in parliament, dashing the opposition’s hopes for the safety of the four-block coalition.

Under Georgia’s new proportional representation system, whoever wins half the votes gets half of the 150 seats.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, told his supporters that it was “a rare case in the world for one party to achieve such success in such a difficult situation”.

However, the opposition leaders had a completely different view.

Tina Bokuchava of the largest opposition United National Movement party said: “We believe that the Georgian public has clearly voted for a future at the heart of Europe, and no amount of posturing will change that.”

“This is the moment. There may not be such a moment in the future,” 36-year-old opposition voter Levan Benidze told the BBC. “I know there are a lot of geopolitical risks – from Russia – but this could be a key moment, a turning point.”

Although Georgia was put forward as a candidate to join the European Union last December, the move has since been frozen by the EU due to “backsliding democracy – notably a Russian-style ‘foreign influence’ law targeting groups that receive Western financing.

The USSR may have ceased to exist more than three decades ago, but Moscow still considers most of the old Soviet empire its own Russian backyard and sphere of influence.

He praised Georgian Dream’s pre-election promise of a “pragmatic” policy toward Russia, not to mention Brussels’ decision earlier this year to halt Georgia’s EU accession process.

Georgian Dream promised voters they were still on track to join the EU, but also accused the opposition of helping the West open a new front in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Georgia’s Russian neighbor still occupies 20% of its territory after a five-day war in 2008.

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s rhetoric has become increasingly anti-Western, indicating that a fourth term for the “Georgian Dream” could bring the country back into Russia’s orbit.

Georgians had a simple choice, the founder of the party said after the vote in Tbilisi: either the government that served them, or the opposition of “foreign agents who will only follow the orders of a foreign country.”

He has repeatedly spoken about the “party of global war” that pushes the opposition to join the war in Ukraine, while “Georgian Dream” (GM) is called the party of peace. For many voters, this message worked.

“The most important thing – for me, my family, my grandchildren – is peace, which I wish for all Georgians,” GD voter Tinatin Gvelesiani, 55, told the BBC at a polling station in Kojori, south-west of the capital. “Only the Georgian dream” will bring peace, she added.

Election monitors reported a range of violations across the country, from ballots being thrown at polling stations to voter intimidation outside.

Less than an hour before polling stations closed, pro-Western President Salome Zurabishvili called on opposition voters not to be afraid.

“Don’t be scared. It’s all just psychological pressure on you,” she said live on social media.

The intimidation turned into violence against Azat Karimov, 35, the local chairman of the largest opposition United National Movement party in Marneul, south of Tbilisi.

He told the BBC how he was attacked when his team tried to investigate vote-rigging by Georgian Dream officials. He also claimed that voters were bribed to support the ruling party.

“(Georgian Dream MP) came with 10-20 people… before the police came, I told him to calm down. The deputy immediately started beating me.”

On the eve of the vote, the Georgian monitoring group drew attention to the Russian disinformation campaign aimed at the election.

The Kremlin denies meddling in Georgia’s internal affairs and instead says the West has made “unprecedented attempts” to intervene.

Earlier this year, Serhii Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), accused the United States of planning a “color revolution” in Georgia.