The Moldovan diaspora tipped the scales in key elections. Critics question the validity of the vote

After 100 percent of ballots were counted in the second round of Sunday’s presidential election, Sandu received 55.33 percent of the vote, according to data from the Central Election Commission, compared to 44.67 percent for Oleksandr Stoyanoglo, who was backed by the pro-Russian Socialist Party.

A record 327,000 voters cast their ballots abroad in the second round, more than 82 percent of whom voted in favor of Sandu. But within Moldova, Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general, won 51.3 percent of the vote compared to Sandu’s 48.67 percent.

Although the former Soviet republic signed an agreement with the EU in 2014 forging closer political and economic ties, years of rampant corruption and a lack of reform have hampered development, and hundreds of thousands of citizens have sought a better future abroad.

Former President Ihor Dodon, leader of the pro-Moscow Socialist Party, quickly questioned Sandu’s election victory, telling Russia’s state news agency TASS that she had become the “president of the diaspora” and suggested that this undermined the election results, noting that Stoyanoglo “won by presidential elections within the country”.

Dodon’s party said on social media on Monday that it would not recognize the results, calling Sanda “an illegitimate president recognized only by her sponsors and supporters abroad” and saying Moldovans “feel betrayed and robbed.”

Christian Kantir, a Moldovan adjunct professor of international relations at Oakland University, told the Associated Press that the reaction from pro-Moscow politicians “was expected” because they had “criticized the diaspora vote in the past, especially the vote of Moldovans” living in the country. in western countries.

“This message of illegitimacy and the diaspora will be used to reinforce one particular Kremlin thesis,” he said, “that pro-European politicians are not really popular in Moldova and that they only stay in power with the support of the diaspora in the West, and western countries”.

Moldova’s diaspora also played a key role in the national referendum on October 20, when a slim majority of 50.35 percent voted to secure Moldova’s path to EU membership. Like Georgia and neighboring Ukraine, Moldova aspires to join the EU, but is caught in a constant geopolitical tug of war between Moscow and the West.

In her victory announcement early Monday, Sandu told voters they had “taught a lesson in democracy worthy of being written down in the history books” and noted the diaspora’s significant role in her re-election.

“Our diaspora taught us another lesson today that we should all learn from,” said Sandu, a former World Bank official. “Moldovans abroad once again showed that Moldova beats in their hearts as strongly as it does at home.”

She also said the vote was marred by an “unprecedented attack” over alleged schemes including dirty money, vote-buying and election interference by “hostile forces from outside the country” and criminal groups.

The results of both the October vote and Sunday’s runoff have been dogged by allegations of a large vote-buying scheme, Russian interference and voter intimidation, showing that Moldova’s judiciary is unable to adequately protect the democratic process.

After two votes in October, Moldovan law enforcement said the vote-buying scheme was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia last year fraud and money laundering. Shore has pleaded not guilty.

Prosecutors say $39 million was paid to more than 130,000 voters through an internationally sanctioned Russian bank between September and October. Anti-corruption agencies conducted hundreds of raids and seized more than $2.7 million in cash during the crackdown.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova applied to join the EU. In June of the same year, it received candidate status, and in the summer of 2024, Brussels agreed to start membership negotiations. The sharp shift to the west irritated Moscow and significantly damaged relations with Chisinau.

Mihai Mogaldea, deputy director of the think tank of the Institute for European Policy and Reform in Chisinau, said on Monday that the EU should focus on providing more funds to Moldova to “immediately affect people’s lives”.

“We must understand that we have only won the battle,” he said, “and the war will continue until the parliamentary elections – and in fact, this is what Russia is betting on.”