Will there be violence after the elections? Experts weigh in.

Experts gave USA TODAY their best guesses about election-related extremist activity

Threats of political violence, intimidation and insurrection have proliferated in the online extremist ecosystem in recent weeks, driven by a network of conspiracy theorists, disinformation purveyors and propagandists.

Experts who monitor local extremists say they are waiting and watching for what many see as an inevitable violent clash after the election, perhaps along the lines of the January 6 uprising. But how, where and when such an event will happen, according to them, remains unclear and a lot depends on the election results.

More than a dozen experts on violent domestic extremism consulted by USA TODAY said they are keeping a close eye on extremists’ online communications and organizing, watching narratives develop and watching for anything that looks like a potential flashpoint. But they also noted that 2024 is different from 2020, including in ways that could help reduce the potential for political violence.

The groups and communities that helped organize the January 6 uprising remain largely dissociated, if not completely abandoned, and have barely appeared in public for years. Former President Donald Trump, while still drawing crowds, has no experience organizing mass protests after 2020. And perhaps most importantly, disaffected members of the far right haven’t yet taken to the streets the way they did in the run-up to the 2020 election, said Megan Squire, deputy director of data analytics at Southern Poverty. Legal center.

“I don’t see right-wing groups on the ground in large numbers gathering at anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-neo-confederate rallies; I don’t see them putting each other’s numbers into their phones; they do not appear at events, they learn to trust each other; I don’t see organized groups raising funds every night to buy bulletproof vests and transportation,” Squire said. “It’s a completely different landscape.”

Could another one happen on January 6?

One possibility for political violence after the election is a repeat of the violent uprising on January 6. But experts say Washington is unlikely to see a repeat of the riots at the Capitol, in which police killed one protester and led to more than 1,400 arrests.

In the nation’s capital, police and security agencies will be on high alert for any plans for action on Jan. 6, said Colin P. Clark, director of research at the Soufan Group, a global intelligence consultancy.

“The demonstration of deterrence will be so overwhelming that only a fool would go there with force,” Clarke said. “We’ve got a lot of fools in this country, but it’s not going to be something as organized and able to defeat defenses as we saw in 2021.”

A more likely scenario that worries extremism watchers is a tight election with votes still being counted in the days after November 5.

Conspiracy theorists and their extremist allies could identify one or more local vote-counting centers in swing states and target angry Trump supporters for civil disobedience or violence, said Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.

“If anything gets hot and heavy, it will be because the election is dragging on,” Beirich said. “Where angry MAGA people and maybe some bad actors like white supremacists come to the counting center and start making accusations of fraud.”

Clark agreed.

According to him, such a scenario can happen in several different states, and not in the capital of the country.

“Instead of a massive incident like Jan. 6, I’m concerned that we might see a series of smaller incidents at local polling stations that have a cascading effect where people say, ‘You’ve got to get out there, you’ve got to stop these people from stealing this election.’ ,” Clarke said. “That way it’s going to be more of a death by a thousand cuts than any single big event.”

Threats of political violence by lone attackers

Despite organized acts of political violence, some extremism experts remain deeply concerned about individual acts of post-election violence by members of the extreme left or far right.

Recent history has shown that far-right extremists are more likely to be disaffected and engage in political violence after a Trump loss, said Jared Holt, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

Holt said Trump’s violent supporters were lulled into a sense of calm and expectation of vindication by Trump’s often angry and confrontational campaign. Just as QAnon conspiracy theorists bided their time, anticipating the coming “storm” of criminal and political retribution against their enemies if Trump wins office, many election fraud conspiracy theorists believe Trump will soon take office and clean up decades of corruption , Holt. said

If Trump loses, especially in a tight race, those same thriving extremist conspiracies may decide to take matters into their own hands, Holt said.

“This is a movement that has preached to its followers that their political opponents are not just people who think differently than you, but are some kind of existential — even satanic and evil — threat to your safety,” Holt said. “People inspired by these beliefs may feel compelled to act on them.

The same thing could happen if Trump wins the presidency, but from far-left agitators, Clark warned.

According to Clark, anti-fascists and anarchists expressed a desire to take revenge for Trump’s victory.

“Violence on the left has historically not been as deadly, but anarchists and people from Antifa have said that they see Trump’s victory as an existential threat and that they are willing to go further than they have in the past,” he said.

Proud boys who keep their vows are unlikely to play a role

Experts on extremism consulted by USA TODAY agree that the main groups that played a role in political violence up to and including Jan. 6 are shadows of their former selves today and are unlikely to be major players in any disruption this year.

Members of the Proud Boys street gang, for example, have barely made any public appearances in the past two years, Holt said. Trump rallies have occasionally seen people wearing Proud Boys colors, but the group appears to have dwindled to a few disgruntled and anonymous Telegram channels that have little of the influence they once had, he said.

On January 6, leaders of the Oath Keepers, a self-styled “militia” that once numbered thousands of current and former police and military officers, were jailed for sedition for their role on January 6. After their breakup, the group fell apart. In addition, experts who monitor armed far-right movements told USA TODAY. And the same can be said for other self-proclaimed militias, none of which have caught fire in the way the Oath Keepers once did, Squire said.

Simply put, the landscape of extremism in 2024 is very different from what it was in 2020, Squire said. This means experts monitoring this landscape must evolve their thinking and methods and remain open to what potential threats will look like in the coming days and weeks.

“It doesn’t mean something won’t happen, but it won’t look the same,” Squire said. “So we shouldn’t use the textbook from last time.”