The Braves named Blake Snell their top free agent candidate

The Max Fried saga will quickly pick up steam after the World Series wraps up in a few weeks. The Braves, while not the favorites to re-sign him, will certainly be in the conversation. They want him back, but Alex Anthopoulos has a track record of letting stars walk out the door when the stakes are beyond his comfort level.

Assuming that happens again, the Braves will have to replace Fried in one form or another. How big they want to get becomes the question. Anthopoulos certainly shouldn’t get one of the top guys. with Spencer Strider slated to return early next year, the Braves have a good enough rotation to win without even touching it. However, given how injuries have ravaged Atlanta’s pitching staff right before the postseason for three straight years, no organization is more familiar with the term “you can never have enough pitching” than the Atlanta Braves.

Follow one of the titles Blake Snell. At this time last year, he entered free agency in a very similar situation to Max Fried — 30 years old, coming off one of the best seasons of his career and hoping to sign a long-term deal. Snell probably would have gotten one, too, if Scott Boras hadn’t played out, which led to Snell agreeing to a one-year, $32 million contract with the Giants. The deal includes a $38.5 million player option for next year, but Snell is expected to decline it in search of more security.

The whole Blake Snell situation is strange, making it difficult to predict his next contract. He was due to sign a six- or seven-year contract last winter. But because he waited all offseason to sign, his start to 2024 has been terrible. In his first six starts, he posted a 9.51 ERA and opponents boasted an .895 OPS against him. He then left for Illinois for about a month, only to return and pitch some of the best baseball of his career, going 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP over his last 14 second-half starts .

That’s why most expect Snell to opt out of his contract with the Giants as he looks for something more. He shouldn’t have a problem getting a lucrative multi-year deal, but that was also the expectation of the industry last year as he was coming off his second NL Cy Young premium. His injury history clearly played a role in that, and I’m not sure a half-season of elite pitching will change the way clubs think about him. He’ll sign a multi-year deal, but a six- or seven-year deal like the one Max Fried is waiting for seems unlikely. which is why Jim Bowden plans to sign Snell to a three-year, $105 million contract this winter.

8. Blake Snell, LHP

age: 31
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Giants): 2.1 WAR
Career: 23.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation Salary for 2024: 32 million dollars

Snell sought a long-term contract last offseason, but most managers were concerned about his record, which includes 30 or more starts just twice in a nine-year career and has never thrown more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. However, in the two years he did make 30 starts (2018, 2023), he won the Cy Young Award both times.

He’s dealt with injuries early this year, but has performed well since returning in July; he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 2.43 FIP in 20 starts. Snell will be 32 years old next year, and I think his lack of consistency — he’s only thrown 130-plus innings in a season once since 2018 — will again prevent him from getting a long-term contract. However, once he declines his $30 million player option, he will be able to sign a better deal.

The best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Giants
Salary components: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172 million); Carlos Rodon (6 years, $162 million); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140 million); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5 million); Jose Berrios (7 years, $131 million); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75 million)

Ironically, Bowden sees the Braves as one of the best picks for Blake Snell, and I support that idea if his market is colder than expected again this offseason.

Both Max Fried and Blake Snell have had their fair share of injury problems. It wasn’t a major problem, but they seem to spend a time or two on IL every year. That might be seen as a big deal when handing out a six-year contract, but cutting that number in half, as Blake Snell could, might be worth the risk.

Snell also has a lot more upside than Max Fried, and that’s not even a contradiction. He is a two-time Cy Young Award winner and has the most strikeouts in nine innings in MLB history. Right behind him? Chris Sale. The mere thought of Snell, Sale and Strider at the top of the rotation will be a nightmare for opposing teams come October, and that doesn’t even include Spencer Schwelenbach and Reynaldo Lopezwhich are also two star talents.

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Photographer: Brian Rothmueller/Icon Sportswire