Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi, Picks, Predictions, Odds: UFC Edmonton

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Thome breaks down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today he will take a closer look at UFC Fight Night 246 main event between Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi.

Brandon Moreno’s UFC Fight Night 246 preview

Information about staples:

• Record: 21-8-2 MMA, 17-5 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 70″
• The Last Battle: Defeat by decision to Brandon Royval(February 24, 2024)
• Camp: Team Moreno (Las Vegas/Mexico)
• Stance/strike style: orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Additional information:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ MMA regional titles
+ Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu
+ Several awards in the fight
+ 5 victories by knockout
+ 11 wins
+ 8 finishes in the first round
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Accurate left hook
^ Going ahead or off the counter
+ Hard kicks and head kicks
^ Works well off the lead side
+ Improved ability to fight
+ Good transition grappler
^ Reliable scrambles and submissions

Amir Albazi UFC Fight Night 246 preview

Information about staples:

• Record: 17-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC
• Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68 inches
• The Last Battle: Decision win over Kai Cara-France (June 3, 2024)
• Camp: Fight Ready MMA (Arizona)
• Stance/strike style: orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Additional information:
+ MMA regional titles
+ Purple belt of Brazilian jiu-jitsu
+ Several awards in the fight
^ In and with gi
+ 5 victories by knockout
+ 9 wins
+ 9 finishes in the first round
+ KO power
+ Good sense of range
^ Beautiful eyes in exchanges
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Hard kicks
+ Solid fighting skills
+ An excellent transition grapple
^ Excellent back control

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi: Fistfights at flyweight

The main event in Edmonton features top heavyweights (autota) Brandon Moreno (/autotag) and Amir Albazi.

Although Albazi was an up-and-comer who was initially hailed for his wrestling accolades, the Iraqi-born fighter has shown natural striking ability since breaking onto the UFC scene.

Albazi does well when it comes to keeping an active and educated leading hand, showing a constant feinting or inducing presence.

Offensively, this allows Albaza to combine punches and recreate previous work, parrying his jabs and the like. Defensively, Albazi’s presence in feints helps delay the opponent’s reaction, which in turn can lead to several crucial counter-moments.

It’s always dangerous to get too predictable with head movement and counter attacks. pic.twitter.com/iO7S5UaJWn

— Miguel Class (@MigClass) May 31, 2023

Albazi also seems to have a great eye for exchanges, which no doubt contributes to his strong sense of range. I’ll be interested to see if Albazi plans to control the kick traffic, but he too will need to be wary of potential counter attacks coming from Moreno.

Moreno, who first burst onto the UFC scene as a grappling-first fighter, later became a more complete and technical threat as he matured.

Still only 30 years old, Moreno continues to display an almost unwavering composure, win or lose, almost as if he’s determined to finish the fight stronger than his foe. But when you look beyond the brief, sassy moments that let his character shine, you can see a more mature counterpoint.

Always a stickler for the left hook (both forward and off the counter), Moreno is much better at varying his timing and targets, often working them off with a jab. The theme of lead side smarts runs freely for the Mexican fighter as Moreno adds lead leg kicks to his combinations when he feels in his stride.

Moreno also has a knack for navigating extended trades, but I’m not sure how much he’ll want to do that given the possible level change counters that lie ahead.

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi Breakdown: Potential Fight Threats

With grappling being a big part of Albazi’s game, don’t be surprised if he takes up the grappling department first.

As mentioned in the previous chapter, Albazi is a fighter who first found success in grappling. A tenacious competitor, Albazi’s aggression shines through in transition – something he seems to be applying to his grappling repertoire.

Although Albazi has the athletic ability to throw outside, his more effective mounts and takedowns seem to come against the fence or in the clinch. And since Albazi appears to have spent this last training camp at Fight Ready MMA, I suspect those tools of destruction will only get sharper this Saturday.

Fortunately for Moreno, the Mexican is far from a slouch in the grappling department.

Starting his career as more of a jiu-jitsu fighter, Moreno made a deft transition to wrestling (from an offensive standpoint) after being given the opportunity to train in the US through the UFC’s former developmental program.

While still getting knocked down or scoring submissions from his back, Moreno offered plenty of glimpses of improvement in his first run with the promotion.

Moreno was much more aggressive on the feet during this second period, but didn’t seem to ignore other parts of his game. On the grappling and wrestling side of things, Moreno was able to come out on top in stanzas against some of the best grapplers in the division, such as Jussier Formiga and Askar Askarov (whom he clearly beat in my opinion).

But when it comes to Moreno’s fight, he might want to pick his spots wisely with a fighter like Albazi.

Albazi is an avid backtaker with fantastic handling from the back mount. Whether Albazi chooses to block opponents from a safer riding position in the background or uses crabs to transition, the Iraqi-born fighter does a great job of staying behind his opponent’s knees and elbows whenever possible (quiet key, which should be looked for in good grapplers). .

Brandon Moreno’s odds against Amir Albazi

The odds and the public favor the former champion, listing Moreno at -172 and Albaza at +134 via FanDuel.

Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi, Prediction, Pick

With Moreno being the more proven product (over five rounds in total), it’s not a huge shock to see the Mexican fighter get the upper hand in this spot. However, it is difficult to know exactly where this or that fighter is at this stage of his career.

In addition to a crazy streak of post-pandemic title fights, Moreno has also seen a few changes in camp during that time. Whereas Albazi, who had to overcome some recent health scaresalso moved his training camp before the competition.

The larger Octagon and 25-minute time slot should favor Moreno on paper, but I worry that the Mexican’s positioning in the cage puts him in a prime working spot for Albazi.

While Moreno isn’t above stepping on the gas and taking the initiative, he traditionally loves counters and can be pushed to play between the fence and the inside black lines of the Octagon.

If Moreno allows Albazi to take the initiative early on, then I suspect Albazi will be able to land the former champion’s hooks and rack up takedown records along the cage en route to banking some early rounds. And if Albazi shows the improvement in pace that usually comes with the second swing in five-round affairs, then I think we’re in for a competitive fight from start to finish.

While I usually prefer more tried-and-true products, I find myself fading away from my usual trends given how terrible my selections have been this year. I wouldn’t mind being wrong as a Moreno fan, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Albazi to avoid another decision by having a more effective fight and landing more attractive punches.

Forecast: Albazi by decision

Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi, start time, where to watch

The main event of Moreno and Albazi is expected to take to the Octagon at approximately 10:45 PM ET. Live broadcasts of wrestling ESPN+.

For more information on the card, visit the MMA Junkie Event Center UFC Fight Night 246.