The civil war in Myanmar is an explanation of what will happen next

Undoubtedly, there have been ongoing efforts to implement a governance vision in post-junta Myanmar. Many members of the resistance movement embraced the idea of ​​a federal state, although agreement on the specifics of this vision of federalism is still lacking.

One outstanding offer came in the form of Federal Democratic Charter introduced only a month after the coup by the National Unity Consultative Council, an advisory body to the NUG. A separate offer is supported 12 political parties were introduced in February. None of them could gain enough support among the resistance.

“The government of national unity and many resistance organizations are talking about a Federated Democratic Myanmar, and that is a strong and important commitment, but so far too little work has been done to flesh it out, to give it substance,” says Sidoti. . “It should be an egalitarian society in which there is a high level of autonomy at the regional level, but international leadership through the national government.”

At least one state is already experimenting with a hybrid governance model — with considerable success. The Karenni State Interim Executive Council has established administrations in the state’s 16 townships, all elected by residents and composed of leaders representing civil society and ethnic communities. This model of decentralized power is unprecedented in a state where, before the coup, local leaders were appointed by the central government.

“We call it bottom-up federalism,” says Khoo Plu Re, secretary-general of the Karenni Interim Executive Council. “This is very important, the recognition of the self-determination of each ethnic group.”

Khu Plu Reh says he’s not sure if the model can be replicated across the country, only that it’s “a very appropriate model for Karenni State at the moment.” Still, the political innovation sparked intrigue from other ethnic leaders who, according to Khu Phu Re, contacted them to learn more about their vision of governance.

There are doubts as to whether the NUG is capable of leading the charge to bring lasting peace to Myanmar. It has limited influence on the ground, where it cooperates with various ethnic armed groups to fight the junta, but has been unable to build political consensus among its partners.

Many are from ethnic rebel groups cautiously skeptical leaders of the NUG who have not proven themselves to be the greatest champions of ethnic minorities in the country. Although Aung San Suu Kyi’s government has been associated with the struggle for democracy and human rights, it has also been criticized for noticeable silence about the brutal military campaign against the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group in Rakhine state that now constitutes one of the world’s largest refugee groups, most of whom live in exile in camps in neighboring Bangladesh.

Some temporary partnerships with NUG are already falling apart. In September, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a powerful pro-Chinese ethnic armed group that is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, publicly rejected the idea of ​​military or political cooperation with the NUG and said it would not help anti-junta efforts in the Shan state capital of Taunggi or Mandalay.

Time is ticking for the NUG, which analysts say is getting more difficult as the junta weakens. “After the collapse of the army, the NUG will no longer have such central authority,” says SAC-M’s Lee. “And they can’t wait until, for example, they win the war, until the army collapses, and then think about how to create a new future for Myanmar.”

All observers agree there is uncertainty, but there is also hope. The past three years of fighting the junta have fostered new ties between different factions of the resistance movement, even as negotiations between the various stakeholders on post-war Myanmar remain difficult.

“We see tensions ahead, but commitment to a federal democratic Myanmar is now so widespread and so deeply rooted in people’s aspirations that there is an opportunity like never before, and there are signs of commitment to nationalism like never before. unity,” says Sidoti. “This is something that needs to be brought up. It can be developed and I think it will be built, but it will take hard work.”

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