Los Angeles fires: Will Trump’s immigration campaign slow rebuilding?

The breeze was a hint of smoke from fires burning in Pacific Palisades as dozens of workers finished the brick facade of the sprawling home in the tony Brentwood Park neighborhood.

The conversation was in Spanish, which is no small feat considering that language has been the lingua franca on most construction sites in Southern California for decades.

But this fact may be at the heart of a leviathan conflict of interest: the need to rebuild the thousands of houses that were burnt on a scale the city had never seen before, and the future president’s promise to deport a good percentage of the workers needed to carry out this colossal undertaking.

“Everybody’s scared,” said Melvin Merino, 36, a house painter. Workers are “reluctant to talk about their immigration status for fear of sharing it with immigration officials.”

Even in such a city support for immigrantshis apprehensions may cause him and others to be cautious about working in critical areas such as the fire zone.

US President-elect Donald Trump has promised to carry out the largest program of mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants in US history and to “close” the borders to immigrants. Trump’s border czar Tom Homan promises to put law enforcement back on the job.

Immigrant rights groups are bracing for mass roundups and deportations, holding legal seminars across the state in an effort to help residents who may be stopped by federal authorities.

There is a threat chatter the construction industry, which is already experiencing a labor shortage. Wildfires that leveled approx 12,000 buildings in Pacific Palisades and Altadena will only increase demand. As homeowners turn to contractors to slow the rebuilding process, immigration policies that deport undocumented workers or force them to work underground can hinder recovery.

“It’s really a perfect storm,” said Jenny Murray, president of the National Immigration Forum, a bipartisan immigration advocacy group.

Rating 41% of builders immigrants in California, according to the National Assn. House builders. But experts say that number is much higher in residential construction — many of which are not unionized and not as tightly regulated as major capital projects. Wages are lower and many do not have legal status in the United States.

Trump officials have said the administration will prioritize criminals and those who pose a threat to public safety, but their plans have yet to take shape. Many employers fear the administration will widen the net, which could devastate industries such as hospitality, manufacturing, construction and agriculture that rely heavily on immigrant labor.

A crackdown by Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol in Bakersfield this month raised concerns among farmworkers after dozens were detained in a days-long operation. Videos of border guards stopping people are circulating on social media.

Manufacturers have reported fewer workers showing up for their jobs, and rights groups have seen a surge in frightened families showing up to legal seminars on how to protect themselves from deportation.

In Southern California, a similar situation could harm not only recovery efforts, but also preparations for the 2028 Olympics.

“There’s just a shortage of roofers, plasterers and all the other skilled trades in this country,” said Nick Theodore, a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago who studies disaster recovery in the Department of Urban Planning and Policy. “Then, against the backdrop of the incoming Trump administration’s campaign promises on immigration enforcement and deportations, we’re facing a pretty serious situation.”

There are about 276,000 unfilled jobs in the U.S. construction industry. To address the tight labor market, the National Association of of Home Builders advocates a guest worker program.

Figures vary, but some estimates put the percentage of unauthorized construction workers in the U.S. at between 13% and 23%. Last year, California Lutheran University Center of Economy and Social Problems analyzed data from 2019 and found that in California that number was 28.7%, and that year those workers added $23 billion in value to the industry.

“There’s definitely a labor shortage around the corner,” said Frank Houck, executive secretary-treasurer of the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters, which represents 90,000 union members in 12 western states. According to him, even before the wildfires, there were concerns about the region’s ability to deliver skilled workers for the Olympics.

And he said undocumented workers would be concerned about long trips, where they could be vulnerable to immigration officials.

Others may go underground or leave the country altogether. Builders fear that will further restrict the market by putting pressure on costs.

The Cal Lutheran study found that the average hourly wage for undocumented workers in California across all sectors was $13 — half the $26 earned by U.S.-born workers. Authorized immigrants earned $19 an hour.

Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum, who outlined the plans increase aid to millions of citizens who may face deportation, suggested this week that Los Angeles should use Mexican immigrants.

“When the reconstruction process begins, of course, it will require a lot of labor, and there are no better builders than the Mexicans.” she said during a press conference where she objected to the right-wing portrayal of migrants as criminals.

The Southern California wildfires, one of the nation’s worst disasters, have been compared to Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast, where labor Latin American immigrants were pouring in rebuild the land. In Paradise, Calif., where a wildfire tore through the heavily forested Northern California town six years ago and killed 85 people, the rebuilding process still involves about 5,000 workers a day — many Latino immigrants — to erect walls, lay foundations and lay pipes.

Many immigrants will travel to disaster zones in hopes of finding work, said Pablo Alvarado, co-executive director of the National Day Workers Organization.

After Katrina, he said, “every five minutes, employers would stop by the corner of day laborers and actually pay them well.”

“But here it is injustice comeshe said. Unauthorized immigrants are particularly vulnerable to unsafe conditions and other abuses. After Katrina, many workers complained that they were not getting what they had earned.

Artist Merino fears contractors will hire unauthorized immigrants to avoid contact with federal authorities. Others believe that contract workers are likely to continue to be hired, while new immigrants may struggle to find work.

Studies show that if mass deportations were to take place, the effects could ripple throughout the construction industry, leading to a net loss of jobs among US-born construction workers.

“If you don’t have people framing the house, putting up the drywall, you can’t have the American electricians and plumbers come in and do the job,” said Deyin Zhang, associate professor of real estate and urban economics at the University of Wisconsin. -Madison.

Zhang was a co-author a recent study examining the US immigration program that began in 2008 and has resulted in the deportation of more than 300,000 people. The study found significant and persistent declines in construction labor and housing in the counties following deportation. Home prices also rose as the effects of reduced housing supply outweighed lower demand from deported immigrants.

Mass deportations are likely to have a stronger impact in Los Angeles because of the large number of construction workers living in the area illegally, Zhang said.

“Either way, I think it’s going to be a much bigger distortion to the labor supply in the construction sector in the Los Angeles area,” he said.

In Malibu, 38-year-old Alberto Garcia, an immigrant from Honduras, was a volunteer Friday at the Malibu Community Job Exchange.

“We are very concerned about deportations,” he said. Garcia hopes to get a construction job in Malibu, but fears any problem with his asylum case could hurt him.

“I was really trying to do everything by the book,” he said, confused. “All we can do is rely on God.”

Another volunteer, Alejandro Perez, 45, who emigrated from Mexico, has applied for asylum but is unsure of his status. He and other workers say they have no choice but to leave home every morning and look for work.

“The need for food, bills and rent make you look for a job,” he said. He specializes in roofing, drywall installation and painting, but worries that contractors might not hire him because of his status.

Others will likely stay home, said Oscar Malodrago, director of the Malibu Community Job Exchange.

Hector Reyes owns a construction business serving clients in the Westside, including Pacific Palisades, Bel-Air and Westwood. He is typical of many immigrants who work in the trade.

Reyes, like many in the business, gained skills on the job, eventually learning English, getting a green card and getting a license. He built a decades-long career in commerce that allowed him to raise a family, three children, and a middle-class life.

Reyes has a small team, including his sons, but the threats seem familiar, reminiscent of the 1980s, when immigration raids were commonplace at workplaces. “People were hiding in boxes, in attics.”

“I know people who live here illegally, but they are very decent people, they work hard,” he said.

Deportation or not, the city will depend on them, Theodore said.

“I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Los Angeles will be rebuilt by immigrant workers,” he said.