Measuring the Potential Impact of Mass Deportations in San Diego

When Border Patrol agents arrested 74 unauthorized immigrants in Bakersfield immigrants across the state took notice last week.

Although the raid came at the end of the Biden administration, people took it as a sign of what to expect after Donald Trump returns to the White House.

In San Diego, people posted images of Border Patrol vehicles driving through City Heights on social media. They urged followers to “spread the word” and “please stay safe.” And local high school students are organizing protests against immigration control.

It is unclear whether Trump will be able to fulfill his campaign promise. It would need congressional approval additional funding and hire more staff. Experts noted a number of logistical problems, including: lack of storage spacethe cost of deportation flights and the fact that countries such as Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua do not accept deportees.

But if large-scale deportations do happen, it’s clear that San Diego will be significantly affected, according to Tom Wong, associate professor and founding director of the US Immigration Policy Center at the University of California, San Diego.

“There’s a lot at stake in San Diego when it comes to Trump’s promise to deport undocumented immigrants en masse,” Wong said.

Wong uses microdata from the US Census Bureau’s Annual Demographic Survey to get an idea of ​​the size and scope of San Diego’s unauthorized immigrant population. This data provides insight into the size of the population, how long they have lived in the US, what industries they work in, and how much they contribute to the economy.

Between 150,000 and 170,000 people in San Diego County have no legal status. And another 150,000 people live in mixed-status households, meaning they may be citizens but others in their households are undocumented immigrants.

That’s 300,000 people — or roughly the population of Chula Vista — who could be directly affected by deportation.

And many of those people have deep roots in San Diego, Wong said.

According to his research, one in six unauthorized immigrants have lived in the United States for 10 years or longer. And every third person has been here for 20 years or more.

KPBS asked Customs and Border Protection if the agency has conducted any enforcement operations in San Diego similar to the one in Bakersfield. In a statement, the press secretary did not directly answer the question.

“US Border Patrol conducts targeted enforcement arrests of individuals involved in smuggling in all of our areas of operation as part of our efforts to dismantle transnational criminal organizations,” the statement said.

Economic effect

Approximately 1.8 million people without legal status live in California. According to the data, they pay more than $3.5 billion annually in state and local taxes a study by the University of California, Merced’s Community and Labor Center.

Those billions are raised through a combination of property, income and sales taxes, said Ed Flores, faculty director of the Community and Labor Center.

“They are consumers,” Flores said. “They live here and shop at local stores, so they contribute to local tax revenue.”

In California, undocumented immigrants are eligible for benefit programs such as in-state tuition and financial aid, Medi-Cal emergency health insurance, and CalFresh food assistance for their children.

But they don’t qualify for federally funded benefits like Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security or food stamps — even if they pay taxes for those programs, Flores said.

“Illegal immigrants contribute through their taxes to a government that does not provide them with social protection,” he said. “But they’re subsidizing this safety net for all of us.”

In recent years, tourism in San Diego has broken records for economic impact. It was more than $22 billion in fiscal year 2024 alone, according to the San Diego Tourism Authority.

Given the industry’s importance to San Diego’s economy, mass deportations could be particularly problematic, Wong said. He points to the fact that one in five unauthorized immigrants in San Diego County work in the food and service industries.

“San Diego thrives on tourism, and the foundation of the tourism industry is service,” Wong said. “Political promises like mass deportation will have a significant impact on San Diego’s economy and destroy our tourism industry.”