Will Europe be able to avoid a trade war with Trump by buying American oil and gas?

This is a message in the purest style of US President-elect Donald Trump, alternating lowercase and uppercase letters, all intimidation and bravado. “I told the European Union that they should compensate for their colossal deficit with the USA through large-scale purchases of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it’s all TARIFFS!!!!!!,” he wrote on his Pravda website. The social network on December 20, a month before he was sworn in. The billionaire says he wants to use it to close the trade deficit with the 27 member states (€151 billion in 2022 in goods trade), his longtime obsession.

His request comes with a threat that if the Europeans do not comply, they will face a sharp increase in tariffs on their exports. About 10% if Trump keeps his campaign promises.

European leaders, who believe it is still possible to avoid a trade war, have anticipated the request. In early November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen raised the issue of the possibility of purchasing more American liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace imports from Russia. Purchases of Russian gas have decreased since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, but have never stopped. Andreas Guth, secretary general of Eurogas, the European gas lobby, said Russia clearly needed more US LNG to continue diversifying Europe.

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